Saudi Arabia’s latest adventure in Yemen, a decade after creating the nine-member Arab coalition behind Operation Decisive Storm, now creates a political and security vacuum across southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s response to conflict in central Hadramawt has both derailed hope for bringing Houthis to the negotiating table and empowered the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliate al-Islah and their Al Qaeda allies. Failed political balancing models led by northern elites were initially abandoned under the 2019 Riyadh Agreement, but by bringing al-Islah back into provinces that Southern Forces liberated from the Houthis, chaos will persist as southerners reject the Islamist party and heavy-handed Saudi intervention.
Events in Yemen coincided with the Trump administration’s pressure on the Muslim Brotherhood.
Saudi Arabia reversed years of progress in countering Houthi smuggling and unifying southern movement (Hirak) factions when it launched airstrikes against forces aligned with the Southern Transitional Council in December 2025. Airstrikes came as Saudi Arabia released a statement claiming military operations near its border represented a national security threat. Later, Saudi Arabia confirmed growing tensions with the United Arab Emirates by stating airstrikes on Mukalla seaport targeted foreign military support for southern forces, a group Abu Dhabi supported.
Events in Yemen coincided with the Trump administration’s pressure on the Muslim Brotherhood. While the State Department has yet to designate Islah in Yemen, Saudi Arabia cannot deny its empowerment of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate following clashes across Hadramawt. As southern forces pushed Islah-affiliated units of the First Military Region from Seiyun toward Marib, Saudi Arabia deployed elements of the Salafi- and Islah-dominated National Shield Forces across al-Wadiah border crossing. In recent weeks, as Saudi Arabia called Yemen political and military figures to Riyadh for dialogue, the Kingdom has come to rely primarily on the Hadramawt National Council, National Shield Forces, and Change and Liberation Movement.
Issam Habrish al-Kathiri, Abdullah Mabrouk Bin Ajaj Al-Nahdi, and Badr Ba-Salmah are among the many tribal shaykhs and al-Islah affiliates within the Hadramawt National Council. Riyad “Abu Omar” al-Nahdi (Rafiq al-Shar’a), a former leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, defected in 2018 and sought refuge in Turkey and founded the Change and Liberation Movement. Images across social media platforms in late January of a meeting between al-Kathiri and Abu Omar in Seiyun further support claims of collusion between Islah and Al Qaeda.
Saudi Arabia helped create the National Shield Forces, led by Saif Qaed Ghubeir Al-Subaihi (also known as Sheikh Bashir Al-Mudrabi), directly under Hadramawt Governor Salem al-Khanbashi, to provide Saudi-appointed Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi a counterbalance to southern forces. The command leadership hails from among Salafi elements from Subeiha, Lahj. Yemeni Emergency Forces, another Saudi-sponsored force led by Salafi leaders like Ammar “Abu Waleed” Tamish, from Senhan village in Sana’a, home of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and former vice president and commander of First Armoured Brigade Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, also support the Shield Forces.
The Kingdom rightly recognized the Southern Transitional Council as the legitimate successor to Hirak and representative of the southern people.
Riyadh’s reversal since the Riyadh Agreement threatens the stability of liberated provinces, especially with the arrival in Riyadh of other major Islah figures like Shaykh Hamid al-Ahmar from Amran and Shaykh Hamoud al-Makhlafi from Taiz in mid-January. The Kingdom rightly recognized the Southern Transitional Council as the legitimate successor to Hirak and representative of the southern people. Al-Islah had only maintained significant influence in the cities of Marib and Taiz, until the establishment of the Presidential Council in April 2022, when Islah regained influenced with Abdullah al-Alimi from Shabwa joining as a co-vice president. Abdullah al-Alimi had served as secretary to former president Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Yemeni sources highlight relations between Rashad al-Alimi and al-Islah party as part of Alimi’s strategy to strengthen his hand vis-à-vis Tareq Saleh, another co-vice president, and the Southern Transitional Council. This relationship now teeters in the balance as Rashad al-Alimi and new Prime Minister Mohsen al-Zindani form a new cabinet.
Saudi Arabia has snubbed the Trump administration by empowering a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, and it will backfire as Yemenis announced the South-South dialogue has been postponed. Saudi Arabia may believe that kneecapping the Southern Transitional Council will resolve its problems in southern Yemen, but that only reflects Riyadh’s ignorance of Yemen’s reality. The fact is that the Southern Transitional Council reflects popular will, and Islah’s repression reflects the opposite. What looms is a train wreck of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s making.
