Middle East Forum Director of Policy Analysis Michael Rubin joined Washington Journal on C-SPAN on the fifth day of U.S. and Israeli combat operations against Iran to assess whether the Islamic Republic can remain intact after the death of Ali Khamenei. Rubin argued that the key indicators are not only which senior regime figures are being eliminated, but which figures are being left alive, whether as possible successors or as interlocutors for a negotiated endgame. He identified succession contenders inside Iran’s security establishment, examined the uncertain standing of Mujtaba Khamenei, and warned that any collapse of central authority could quickly become dangerous if weapons depots controlled by provincial Revolutionary Guard units are left unsecured.
Rubin also argued that Iran’s missile strikes on neighboring Arab states were intended to create enough regional panic to pressure Washington into halting operations, but said the strategy may instead be hardening opposition to Tehran across the Gulf. He explained why he believes negotiations were unlikely to succeed under Khamenei, citing the political cost the regime would face if it abandoned a nuclear program for which it had demanded decades of sacrifice. Throughout the interview, Rubin examined the internal structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the role of ethnic and sectarian fault lines inside Iran, the risks surrounding Reza Pahlavi and Kurdish actors in any post-regime scenario, and the broader strategic calculations involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Europe, and the Strait of Hormuz.
00:00 - Introduction and what determines whether Iran’s regime survives
02:05 - Who could emerge after Khamenei
04:17 - How the supreme leader system works
05:07 - Shia identity and religious legitimacy inside Iran
07:44 - Why Iran struck Arab neighbors
09:28 - Why Rubin says negotiations were unlikely
10:37 - The nuclear program and sanctions pressure
11:53 - Tehran’s strategy: outlasting U.S. patience
12:23 - What Iran learned from hostage crises
14:19 - Kurdish fault lines inside Iran
16:14 - Reza Pahlavi and post-regime questions
18:37 - Turkey, regional signaling, and escalation
20:06 - Saudi Arabia’s strategic position
22:01 - Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s oil vulnerability
29:28 - Could escalation widen further
34:35 - Religious change inside Iran
36:27 - Rubin’s regional field experience
42:56 - Earlier U.S. options against Iran
45:11 - Can the IRGC fracture
48:51 - Ethnic minorities and separatist pressures
51:48 - Kurdistan and regional limits
52:39 - Why Israel viewed Iran differently
