How is India viewing the escalating conflict in the Middle East? For New Delhi, the stakes are high. India meets nearly 88 percent of its oil needs with Persian Gulf crude, with key supplies coming from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Iraq. Roughly 50 percent of these volumes transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar supplies about nearly half of India’s liquified natural gas imports, much of which also passes through the same route. Additionally, nearly 60 percent of India’s cargo trade by value moves through Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf-linked maritime corridors.
India has invested strategically in long-term connectivity and trade initiatives that depend on regional stability.
Any sustained disruption—whether through blockade, insurance constraints, rerouting delays, or prolonged insecurity—would affect India’s energy security, widen the current account deficit, pressure the rupee, fuel inflation, and complicate fiscal management. As one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, India’s development trajectory remains tied to stable and affordable energy supplies.
Beyond energy, India has invested strategically in long-term connectivity and trade initiatives that depend on regional stability. Projects such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, launched at the 2023 G20 Summit, aim to strengthen trade and transport links across Eurasia, connecting India with the Middle East and Europe. India also maintains cooperative ties with Iran, enhancing its engagement across the region. Escalation in the Middle East would complicate India’s connectivity and trade objectives.
The human dimension is equally critical. Around 9 million Indians live and work in Persian Gulf countries, forming one of the region’s largest expatriate communities. These states account for about 38 percent of India’s annual remittance inflows, roughly $45 billion, making them vital to foreign exchange stability and household incomes in several Indian states. In previous crises, India has demonstrated the capacity to evacuate and safeguard its citizens abroad. If escalation deepens, contingency planning may again become necessary.
A desire to balance regional relationships shapes New Delhi’s diplomatic position. India maintains deep defense and technological cooperation with Israel, which has consistently stood with India during critical moments of national security challenges, longstanding civilizational and connectivity ties with Iran, and energy and investment partnerships with Gulf Arab monarchies. Recognizing the seriousness of the unfolding crisis, the Indian leadership has expressed concern over escalating hostilities and called for restraint, de-escalation, and dialogue.
High-level diplomatic outreach to Israel, Iran, and Gulf Arab states underscores New Delhi’s proactive and balanced approach.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described the situation in the Middle East as a “matter of grave concern” and emphasized that “India supports resolution of all conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy.” He has spoken individually with the leadership of all Persian Gulf countries. The Ministry of External Affairs has similarly urged all sides to “exercise restraint” while safeguarding maritime security and the free flow of commerce. High-level diplomatic outreach to Israel, Iran, and Gulf Arab states underscores New Delhi’s proactive and balanced approach.
This posture reflects India’s strategic autonomy and the narrowing diplomatic space amid intensifying confrontation. By staying neutral, India preserves its partnerships and maintains flexibility to act in its national interest, avoiding perceptions of alignment that could strain relations in a volatile region.
India’s emphasis on de-escalation and dialogue is also rooted in strategic necessity. By urging restraint, it seeks to protect energy security, safeguard its diaspora, and maintain stable trade and connectivity. This approach enables engagement with multiple stakeholders, without being drawn into the conflict. Nevertheless, a prolonged confrontation could not only unsettle the international order but also disrupt India’s growth, energy security, and trade networks, and could therefore lead India to recalibrate its diplomatic response.
