Middle East Forum chief strategist Jim Hanson argues that President Trump was right to abandon the JCPOA, which he says Trita Parsi and Alastair Campbell supported despite it placing no real limits on Iran’s centrifuges. Hanson contends the war has left Iran isolated, with its proxy network largely destroyed and its economy broke.
Hanson disputes claims that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, citing a Wall Street Journal report that oil flows through the region remain unchanged since before the war. He maintains that the United States has shifted the regional balance of power, prompting Gulf states, Israel and Turkey to unite against Iran and confront its remaining proxies like the Houthis.
Read Jim Hanson’s take at MEF Online
MORGAN: It’s hard to see the win here, and where’s the win?
HANSON: First of all, if we were still operating under the JCPOA, Iran would have no limits at this point on the number of centrifuges they could run, which Trita lobbied for and Alastair lobbied for. Both of them were making certain that there was a path to a fully legitimate nuclear program for Iran with the JCPOA. So President Trump threw that out the window because that was an absurd thing to allow.
MORGAN: Trump was told by Netanyahu in the White House situation room right before the war started, “Look, they’re there for the taking. You saw what happened last summer. They’ve got no way of responding. We can take out the Ayatollah now. And when you do, with our help, then the regime will collapse, IRGC will collapse, the people will rise up, and they’ll all be too distracted to think about the Strait of Hormuz.” None of, none of that happened.
HANSON: That would’ve been ideal. It didn’t happen. Fact, you don’t get to per- take the outcome of the war before you start it. Now, what did happen is the region is now united. Iran is no longer the hegemon with their axis of resistance and all of their proxies pushing things their direction. All of their proxies are more or less destroyed. Their ability to project power is minimal-
MORGAN: I don’t think the Houthis are very des- no, well, hang on. Just to be clear-
HANSON: They’re, they’re des-
MORGAN: ... The Hou- sorry, the Houthis are a proxy of Iran. They’re not looking very destroyed-
HANSON: Okay
MORGAN: ... To me. It looks to me like they’re attacking-
HANSON: Who’s, who’s fighting them, though?
MORGAN: ... Saudi Arabia with impunity, and they’re controlling the Strait-
HANSON: No, not with impunity
MORGAN: ... Of Bab el-Mandeb, right, which is e-
HANSON: They’re fighting the Saudis, and the Saudis and Israelis, who are providing them intelligence, and now potentially Turkey might be joining that conflict against the Houthis.
MORGAN: Mm.
HANSON: President Trump asked the people who live in the region, the Gulf states, Israel, Turkey, and others, to go ahead and take care of their own region. He said, “I’ll take down Iran a few notches.” Would’ve been nice if it was all the way down. Didn’t happen, but he took them down a few notches, for sure. They are no longer capable. Their country’s broke. They’ve got zero revenue coming in. No deal with-
MORGAN: And yet, astonishingly, the regime remains completely in charge. There have been zero uprisings from the public. They control indisputably the Strait of Hormuz, whatever Trump says about that.
HANSON: They do not. The Wall Street Journal reported today-
MORGAN: And every time, and every time-
HANSON: ... That basically the amount-
MORGAN: Okay, well, okay
HANSON: ... The amount of oil coming out of the region is the same as before
MORGAN: ... Look at the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz and try and pretend to me that you’ve got control of it. You haven’t.
HANSON: They’ve got more, as much oil coming out now as there was between the strait and between the pipelines and other ways out of the Gulf than there was at the start of the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that yesterday. So the strait is not under Iranian control. The US changed the entire balance of power, and now the other people in the region whose neighborhood it is are taking action and are united against Iran
