Strait of Hormuz
The Gap Between Washington’s Optimism and Tehran’s Rhetoric Suggests the Two Sides Are Not Negotiating with the Same Assumptions
Once States Disrupt a Major Maritime Chokepoint, Adjacent Corridors Absorb Both Traffic and Strategic Attention
Iran’s Broader Objective Appears to Be the Gradual Decoupling of Arab Oil Producers of the Persian Gulf from the U.S. Security Umbrella
The Houthis Gave Pirates Better Tools, and Tehran Gave the Houthis Their Purpose and Their Logistics
The Regime Presents Even Symbolic Contacts with Major Western Leaders as Evidence That Powerful Countries Are Appealing to It
Restarting Production Requires More than Reopening Valves, Likely Taking Weeks Rather than Days
Iranian Authorities Continue to Project Defiance but the Economy Appears to Have Limited Remaining Resilience
The Strait’s Closure Disrupts the Flow of More than 20 Percent of the World’s Oil and Gas Supplies
The Choice Facing the U.S. Is to Intensify and Escalate the Pressure, or to Accept a Face-Saving Deal Likely to Leave the Regime’s Regional Project Intact
Military Pressure, Economic Contraction, and Industrial Disruption May Push Iran Toward Significant Concessions
The Strait’s Closure Reveals the Dangers of Politicizing Vital Maritime Chokepoints for the Global Trading System
Iran’s Energy Weakness Could Become Its Strategic Breaking Point
Iran’s Hardliners Have Accused the Negotiating Team of Treason for Reportedly Agreeing to Some U.S. Demands
Either Trump Made Optimistic Assumptions or He Embarrassed Tehran by Claiming What Essentially Amounted to an Iranian Surrender
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz Have Caused Shortages and Surging Prices for Jet Fuel
U.S. Desperation to Stabilize the Global Economy and the Ceasefire Increased Iran’s Stockpile of Will
Tehran Appears to Be Moving Toward Conditional Access, While Retaining the Ability to Disrupt Maritime Traffic