Strait of Hormuz
Trump says ‘Let’s just finish the job’
Iran’s Latest Proposal Is a Tactical Instrument Designed to Fracture the Coalition Forming Around Israel and Give Tehran Effective Veto Power over Gulf Energy Exports
The Lesson of the MOU, as Gulf Governments Currently Read It, Is That the American Security Relationship Is an Input Into Iranian Strategic Calculations Rather than a Constraint Upon Them
Tehran Cannot Legally Redefine Freedom of Navigation Through International Waters
Multiple Power Centers Have Always Characterized the Islamic Republic, Allowing the Regime to Entangle the United States in an Elaborate Game of Good Cop-Bad Cop
Trump’s Interim Iran Deal Could Give Tehran The Power To Disrupt The 2026 Midterm Elections
A Revived Line Would Connect Turkish Industry to Arab Markets, Boost North-South Trade, and Complement Other Projects
Tehran Seeks Not Only a Deal with Washington but Also a Regional Framework That Makes Future Military Pressure More Costly
Deeper Economic Integration Helps Create a More Predictable Framework for a Relationship That Is Vital to India’s Energy Needs
The Gap Between Washington’s Optimism and Tehran’s Rhetoric Suggests the Two Sides Are Not Negotiating with the Same Assumptions
Once States Disrupt a Major Maritime Chokepoint, Adjacent Corridors Absorb Both Traffic and Strategic Attention
Iran’s Broader Objective Appears to Be the Gradual Decoupling of Arab Oil Producers of the Persian Gulf from the U.S. Security Umbrella
The Houthis Gave Pirates Better Tools, and Tehran Gave the Houthis Their Purpose and Their Logistics
The Regime Presents Even Symbolic Contacts with Major Western Leaders as Evidence That Powerful Countries Are Appealing to It
Restarting Production Requires More than Reopening Valves, Likely Taking Weeks Rather than Days
Iranian Authorities Continue to Project Defiance but the Economy Appears to Have Limited Remaining Resilience
The Strait’s Closure Disrupts the Flow of More than 20 Percent of the World’s Oil and Gas Supplies
The Choice Facing the U.S. Is to Intensify and Escalate the Pressure, or to Accept a Face-Saving Deal Likely to Leave the Regime’s Regional Project Intact
