Strike Threat and Protests Add Pressure on Tehran Before Talks

Iranian officials and government-controlled media are awaiting a new round of talks with the United States in Geneva on February 17, 2026, with unease. Although rhetoric against President Donald Trump and Washington has subsided over the past two days, a CBS News report has unsettled Tehran.

CBS News reported on February 15, citing two U.S. officials, that the Trump administration has informed Israel it would support air strikes against Iran’s ballistic-missile infrastructure if negotiations fail. Such an operation would require aerial refueling of Israeli aircraft flying beyond their normal range, striking targets inside Iran and returning—sorties potentially exceeding 2,500 miles. Refueling on that scale, often multiple times per aircraft, would require American participation.

The most telling reaction came from Nour News, a website reflecting the views of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. On February 16, it posted: “CBS News reports that the United States supports Israel’s attack on Iran, but the proxy threat prior to negotiations is not a diplomatic objective. Any operational supporter of the aggressor will taste Iran’s response.” The outlet offered no further comment.

Iranian officials therefore interpreted the CBS News report as pressure ahead of the Geneva talks, alongside the extensive U.S. naval and air deployments in the region. At the same time, the warning directed at Israel—described by Nour News as a U.S. proxy—was unmistakable. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned that any attack on Iran would trigger a regional war, a threat that explains why several Arab states have urged restraint and negotiations.

Hossein Kanaani-Moghadam, a former senior officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who now appears in local media as a political analyst, told Fararu on February 16 that Washington also must consider possible attacks by Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. He reiterated Khamenei’s warning of a broader conflict.

“The leadership has warned that if a war occurs, it will be regional and the Resistance across the region will enter the fight. Therefore, both the Americans and US allies will face serious threats. This includes all Persian Gulf countries and any country hosting US military bases,” he said.

However, during the Israeli and U.S. air strikes in June 2025, Iraqi militias largely remained on the sidelines, effectively maintaining neutrality.

The relatively moderate Rouydad 24 website argued that the CBS News report amounts to a warning that failure in Geneva will not mean a return to the status quo. Instead, it could lead to a pre-emptive strike targeting the central pillar of Iran’s deterrence—its ballistic-missile program. “This is coercive diplomacy, in which the negotiating table is portrayed as the only escape from a forceful military response,” the publication wrote.

At the same time, some Tehran commentators and politicians argue that Trump is seeking a rapid diplomatic success and that a nuclear agreement remains possible. Some even suggest his insistence on missile limits and regional policy changes serves mainly as negotiating leverage to secure concessions on the nuclear issue.

Domestic pressure has also intensified. Over the weekend, more than one million Iranians—responding to a call by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi—rallied in major cities worldwide demanding the government’s downfall. Demonstrations reportedly drew about 250,000 people in Munich, 350,000 in Los Angeles, more than half a million across Canada, and crowds in locations from Australia to Japan and the U.S. East Coast.

State media and pro-government commentators reacted dismissively, but the troubling development for authorities was activity inside Iran. Following Pahlavi’s call, neighborhoods in Tehran echoed with chants from windows and balconies—sometimes amplified by loudspeakers—shouting “Death to the dictator,” referring to Khamenei. Some influencers saw this as humiliation for the ruler in Tehran.

The Islamic Republic now faces simultaneous external and internal pressure. Supporters of President Trump argue he is unlikely to soften his negotiating position, considering these conditions. Yet the president and his aides continue to signal that diplomacy could still avert military action. So far, Tehran appears willing only to consider limited nuclear concessions, such as a temporary halt to uranium enrichment. If Khamenei gambles that Trump will accede to drawn-out negotiations as his predecessors have, he may be gambling both the regime and his own life.