Amine Ayoub

Amine Ayoub is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. His media contributions appeared in The Jerusalem Post, Yedioth Ahronoth , Arutz Sheva ,The Times of Israel and many others. His writings focus on Islamism, jihad, Israel and MENA politics. He tweets at @amineayoubx.

Articles by this Author
When tens of thousands of unauthorized migrants crossed into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in late July 2026, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (above) faced a catastrophic breakdown of border control and European confidence.
Middle East Forum Online
Sánchez’s Scapegoat: How Spain Uses Israel to Mask Its Border Crisis
The Spanish Leader Claimed That Digital Networks Linked to Israel and Russia Spread Online Hoaxes That Exacerbated the Post-Crisis Fallout
September 13, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
American policy has remained tethered for too long to an obsolete “One Somalia” framework that penalizes success and rewards incompetence. By contrast, the emerging alignment between Ethiopia and Somaliland offers a functional, self-sustaining security framework.
Middle East Forum Online
Cairo’s Pivot, Ethiopia’s Alignment: Horn of Africa’s Security Shift
To Secure Freedom of Navigation and Counter Adversary Influence, Washington Must Realign Its Strategy and Actively Back Somaliland
September 12, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood on the summit of Mount Hermon (above) inside Syrian territory on September 9, 2026, flanked by Defense Minister Israel Katz and senior IDF commanders, and delivered a clear strategic message. He declared that Israel now exercises control from the peak of Hermon to the Yarmouk River and westward toward the Mediterranean, an operational dominance the country had never previously held.
Middle East Forum Online
Israel Holds the High Ground, Iranian Axis Severely Weakened
September 10, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
The kinetic actions off Kharg Island generate an elevated risk environment for Israel's offshore natural gas infrastructure, specifically the Leviathan, Tamar and Karish production fields. Image: the Leviathan natural gas field off the coast of Israel.
Middle East Forum Online
The Kharg Trap: How U.S. Strikes in Hormuz Put Israel’s Mediterranean Gas Infrastructure at Risk
Iran Favors Asymmetric Target Substitution, Shifting the Burden Toward High-Value, Vulnerable Western-Aligned Strategic Assets
September 10, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
this national election is also the first legislative vote conducted in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 assault and the prolonged multi-front conflict that subsequently expanded across Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Iran
Middle East Forum Online
Middle East Is Watching Israel’s Election to See If It Still Has the Strength to Deter Iran
If Israeli Voters Elect a Government Committed to Unyielding National Resolve and Military Capability, Israel’s Strategic Value Across the Middle East Will Remain Intact
September 8, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
The operational mechanics of this proxy architecture rely on low-cost, contract-style execution. Handler networks linked to Iranian intelligence recruit local operatives, often disaffected youth or petty criminals, using encrypted messaging channels to conduct low-tech attacks in exchange for financial payments. Plausible deniability is built directly into the operational design.
Middle East Forum Online
The Front Line Is Everywhere: Why Europe Must Dismantle Tehran’s Hybrid Terror Network
Iran-Linked Networks Have Exploited Open Borders, Civil Liberties, and Gaps in Counter-Terrorism Coordination to Establish Cells Across the Continent
September 4, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
On August 30, 2026, political delegates in Tripoli signed a final framework agreement sponsored by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya. However, less than 24 hours after the signing ceremony, serious executive infighting exposed how procedural maneuvering among political elites continues to imperil Libya’s path toward stability. Seafront view of Tripoli, Libya, February 11, 2021.
Middle East Forum Online
Internal Cracks in Libya’s Executive Threaten New U.N.-Backed 4+4 Electoral Deal
To Break This Pattern of Elite Stagnation, the United States Must Replace Passive Diplomatic Support with Decisive Leadership
September 3, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
The Commander Who Smashed ISIS Just Surrendered to Syria’s Ex–Al-Qaeda President
Mazloum Abdi’s Surrender Ends the Kurdish Military Experiment and Consolidates Power Under Ahmed al-Sharaa
August 28, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Jordan’s China Pivot Creates a New Security Risk for Israel
Amman Is Not Abandoning Washington or Jerusalem, but Chinese Digital Infrastructure Near the Jordan Valley Could Create New Intelligence and Cyber Vulnerabilities
August 26, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Israel Just Redrew the Map in Syria and Lebanon. Containment Is Over and Forward Deterrence Has Begun
A New Israeli Doctrine Takes Shape across the Northern Front
August 24, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Hamas's willingness to pivot to a political role under current military pressure reflects a rational adaptation to survive, not an ideological shift toward peace. Granting political legitimacy or administrative oversight to a movement whose foundational tenets remain unchanged ensures the eventual regeneration of its military infrastructure.
Middle East Forum Online
A Suit Doesn’t Absolve October 7: Hamas Is Buying Time for the Next War
Diplomatic Fantasies About a ‘Political Hamas’ Ignore Doctrine, History and the Body Count
August 21, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
As the Palestinian Authority accelerates preparations for legislative elections scheduled for November 28, 2026, a critical security dynamic is taking shape across Ramallah (above), Gaza, and regional capitals. Two decades after the 2006 parliamentary vote provided the political springboard for Hamas to establish an armed stronghold in the Gaza Strip, the terror organization is executing an evolved version of the same tactical playbook.
Middle East Forum Online
The November 2026 Trap: How Hamas Plans to Penetrate the West Bank Through the Ballot Box
Hamas Aims to Establish a Legitimate Political Foothold Across the West Bank Without Moderating Its Core Rejectionist Ideology
August 17, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Tehran knows that Israel possesses the political will to strike directly at its strategic capabilities when necessary. However, the Iranian regime also knows that the Arab Gulf states remain deeply terrified of full-scale regional escalation. Image: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Middle East Forum Online
The Mirage of the Riyadh Shield: Why Saudi Arabia Refuses to Strike Tehran and What It Means for Israel
Riyadh Continues to Play a Calculated Game of Evasion
August 2, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
History shows what Tehran does with quiet periods. It rebuilds stockpiles. It moves weapons to its proxies. It studies what worked and what failed. The factories that build Shahed-type drones (above) do not shut down because diplomats are talking. The smuggling routes into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen keep running.
Middle East Forum Online
The U.S.-Iran Pause Didn’t Stop Tehran’s Drone War, and This Worries Israel
Drones Kept Flying, Rockets Were Falling, and Iran’s Proxies Keep Operating as If Nothing Has Changed
July 31, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
The signing of an intergovernmental agreement by member states of the Economic Community of West African States in Sierra Leone in July 2026 marks a decisive geopolitical turning point. By formally endorsing the Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline, West Africa's primary regional bloc has cleared the way for a transformational 6,900-kilometer energy corridor. Image: An overland liquid natural gas pipeline system.
Middle East Forum Online
How the New Atlantic Gas Corridor Changes the Balance of Power in North Africa
It Delivers Energy Security, Weakens Algerian Leverage, and Creates a Major Strategic Win for Western-Aligned Partners
July 24, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
To secure this experimental enclave, the Peace Council relies on an International Stability Force, structured specifically to act as a buffer separating Palestinian Arab civilians from Israeli troops. Image: Palestinians returning to the Gaza Strip via the Rafah land crossing and arriving at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip; April 24, 2026.
Middle East Forum Online
The Rafah Sandbox: The Peace Council Plan Imperils Israeli Security
The Plan Constructs a Sovereign Blind Spot and a Sanctuary for the Reconstitution of Hostile Forces
July 14, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Since assuming emergency powers in July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied has methodically dismantled democratic institutions, sidelined elected bodies, muzzled independent media, and violated human rights under the pretext of combating corruption and terrorism.
Middle East Forum Online
Tunisia Is Dying While Chasing Political Ghosts
Legal Theater Cannot Feed a Collapsing Nation
July 10, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Al-Sharaa is a veteran of the global jihadist movement who gained operational experience fighting American forces alongside al-Qaeda in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. Following his subsequent incarceration at Camp Bucca, he spearheaded the creation of Jabhat al-Nusra, which operated as al-Qaeda’s official Syrian franchise. Image: Al-Sharaa in Berlin, March 30, 2026.
Middle East Forum Online
U.S.’s Overture to Ahmed Al-Sharaa: A Risky Bet on ‘Reformed’ Islamism
Sharaa’s Elevation from International Terrorist to Diplomatic Partner Is the Most Sophisticated Mutation of Salafi-Jihadist Ideology in the Modern Era
July 10, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Jerusalem’s task now is convincing Washington that the F-35 question and the Libya question are, in substance, the same question, asked in two different theaters. Image: a U.S. Air Force F-35B Lightning II.
Middle East Forum Online
Turkey Doesn’t Need F-35s to Threaten Israel; It’s Already Testing Its Arsenal in Libya
For Israeli Security Planners Gauging What Turkey Would Do with Expanded Access to Advanced Western Technology, the Most Useful Case Study Is Libya
July 9, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
The Algerian regime’s governance model consistently prioritizes tight political control over genuine economic reform. Public sector dominance, opaque decision-making, and selective anti-corruption campaigns, which often target political rivals rather than root causes, systematically undermine foreign and domestic investor confidence. International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building in Washington, DC.
Middle East Forum Online
International Monetary Fund Warns Algeria on Deep Structural Failures in Economic Management
The Warning Stated That Sustaining Huge Deficit Levels Threatens the Sustainability of Public Finances, the Depletion of Foreign Reserves, and Escalating Debt
July 9, 2026
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Amine Ayoub