Amine Ayoub

Amine Ayoub is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. His media contributions appeared in The Jerusalem Post, Yedioth Ahronoth , Arutz Sheva ,The Times of Israel and many others. His writings focus on Islamism, jihad, Israel and MENA politics. He tweets at @amineayoubx.

Articles by this Author
Since assuming emergency powers in July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied has methodically dismantled democratic institutions, sidelined elected bodies, muzzled independent media, and violated human rights under the pretext of combating corruption and terrorism.
Middle East Forum Online
Tunisia’s Constitutional Twilight: Is Kais Saied Engineering a Third Term?
While Saied’s Current Mandate Still Has Years to Run, the Architecture for Its Extension Is Already Being Built
February 19, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
The hamula, or clan, represents a pre-political identity that focuses on the protection, honor and economic survival of the extended family unit.
Middle East Forum Online
The Tribal Solution: Why Gaza’s Future Lies in Pre-Islamic Social Structures
When a Centralized Ideological Regime Collapses, the Vacuum Is Never Filled by a Committee of Bureaucrats
February 17, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
While the transition of the chairmanship to Burundi and the vice chairmanships to Ghana and Tanzania proceeded apace, the seat reserved for North Africa remained conspicuously empty. This “Phantom Seat” is a symptom of a geopolitical stalemate that has effectively bifurcated the Maghreb and realigned the security architecture of the entire Mediterranean-Atlantic corridor. African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Middle East Forum Online
The Phantom Seat: North Africa’s African Union Deadlock and the New Trans-Regional Axis
This Summit Represents a Watershed Moment Where the Maghreb’s ‘African’ Identity Is Being Superseded by an Alignment with Western and Abrahamic Security Interests
February 16, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
By allowing “refugee” status to be passed down like an inheritance, UNRWA created a population of millions who believe their future lies not in building a society where they live, but in “returning” to a Galilee or a Tel Aviv they have never seen. United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) offices, Gaza Strip.
Middle East Forum Online
Israel Must Legally Sunset the ‘Refugee’ Myth by Equating Gaza with Baghdad
For Nearly Eight Decades, the International Community Has Coddled a Unique and Dangerous Fiction: The Perpetual Palestinian Arab Refugee
February 15, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Qatar’s Mediterranean Gambit: Buying Influence in Libya’s Energy Future
Doha’s Entry Into Libya’s Offshore Gas Sector Signals a Strategic Shift From External Patronage to Embedded Political Power
February 13, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
While Western envoys chase a “nuclear framework” with a defiant Iran, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is quietly executing a multi-decade roadmap to transform Turkey into the region’s next nuclear-threshold state.
Middle East Forum Online
Erdoğan’s Atomic Ambition: Why Turkey Is the Middle East’s Next Proliferation Crisis
Turkey’s ‘Stealth Proliferation’ Is Backed by a Massive, $9 Billion Cash Injection from Moscow
February 11, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
The Assassination That Ended Libya’s Hope for a Unified State
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi’s Killing Eliminated the Last Viable Bridge Between East and West
February 10, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
By doubling down on the Moroccan Autonomy Plan and treating Algeria as the primary antagonist it has always been, the Trump administration can secure a strategic victory that has eluded the West for fifty years.
Middle East Forum Online
The Madrid Secret: Forcing Algeria to Finally End Its War Against Morocco
The Era of Playing Both Sides in the Maghreb Is Rapidly Approaching Its Expiration Date
February 10, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Reopening of the Rafah gateway—famously described as Hamas’s "oxygen and rearmament pipeline"—is the most dangerous gamble of the post-October 7 era.
Middle East Forum Online
The Hidden Risks of Reopening the Rafah Crossing
International Forces Historically Fail When They Lack Clear Enforcement Authority
February 5, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Rather than acting as a bridge to a post-Hamas future, the committee is functioning as a managerial shield that allows the terrorist organization to retain its military grip on Gaza while technocrats provide the administrative cover necessary to unlock international funding.
Middle East Forum Online
Gaza’s ‘Technocratic Shield’: Governance Is a Survival Tactic for Hamas
Framed as Neutral Governance, Gaza’s New Technocratic Committee Masks Hamas’s Ongoing Military Rule
February 4, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
What is presented as economic modernization instead consolidates control over Libya’s most critical maritime gateway in the hands of armed non-state actors.
Middle East Forum Online
The Misrata Hub: How International Capital Anchors the Militia Cartel
A $2.7 Billion Port Deal That Turns Infrastructure Into Armed Power
February 3, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Israel Risks Losing the Strategic Endgame in Gaza
As the Hostage File Closes, Strategic Pressure on Israel Accelerates
February 3, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
By allowing or facilitating the movement of radical elements toward the coast, unstable regimes in North Africa and the Levant gain a powerful bargaining chip against Europe. Their message is clear: “Fund our reconstruction and legitimize our rule, or the next boat to Lampedusa will carry more than just economic migrants.” Image: Iron boat used by migrants smugglers to arrive on the island of Lampedusa, Italy.
Middle East Forum Online
How Post-Assad Chaos and North African Smugglers Collide
The Diplomatic Veneer of the ‘New Syria’ Began to Crack, Revealing a Security Nightmare That the West Has Spent a Decade Trying to Prevent
February 1, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
The Tunis Mirage: Why Libya’s Sovereignty Cannot Be Outsourced
External Roadmaps and Neighborly Mediation Are Deepening Libya’s Institutional Collapse
January 27, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
The collapse of security arrangements in northeastern Syria and the rise of an Islamist-led government in Damascus have reshaped Israel’s northern threat environment, forcing Jerusalem to prepare for a renewed jihadist challenge along the border.
Middle East Forum Online
Why Israel Must Not Trust the New Islamist Order in Syria
The Collapse of Kurdish Control and the Rise of Islamist Rule Create a Jihadi Time Bomb on Israel’s Northern Border
January 26, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Libya’s $20 Billion Oil Bet: Energy Rebirth or State-Sanctioned Plunder?
A Landmark Western Energy Deal Revives Production but Risks Entrenching Militia Power and Rentier Corruption
January 26, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Israel Has Caused the Collapse of Turkey’s Indian Ocean Monopoly
Recognition of Somaliland Shatters Ankara’s Maritime Dominance and Redraws the Strategic Map of the Horn of Africa
January 24, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
The Syria–SDF Deal Hands Turkey a Strategic Victory
Damascus’s Absorption of the Syrian Democratic Forces Marks the End of a Secular Buffer and a Win for Ankara’s Regional Strategy
January 24, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Governance mechanisms create the appearance of progress, even as the underlying balance of power remains unchanged.
Middle East Forum Online
The 60,000 Rifle Mirage: Gaza’s Board of Peace Risks a Strategic Catastrophe
Gaza’s Proposed Transition Risks Freezing the War Rather Than Ending It
January 22, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
Middle East Forum Online
Algeria’s Managed Elections and the Final Strangling of Political Pluralism
How a Sweeping New Parties Law Turns Participation Into a Tool of Coercion Ahead of the June 2026 Vote
January 22, 2026
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Amine Ayoub
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