Tehran Relies on Hormuz Threat as Uncertainty over War and Iran’s Leadership Deepens

As global markets faced growing turmoil on March 12, 2026, a statement issued in the name of Iran’s newly selected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that “for certain, the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz should continue to be used.”

For more than two weeks, one of the world’s most critical waterways has been closed to commercial shipping after Iran threatened to attack transiting vessels. Hundreds of oil tankers remain stranded on both sides of the corridor, which is bordered by Iran along its northern shore. Although global oil supplies have not yet reached a crisis point, financial markets tend to react to looming risks rather than current conditions.

Iran had warned even before the U.S.-Israel air campaign began on February 28, 2026, that it would close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked. Now Tehran appears to see that threat as its primary leverage in the conflict. The country has lost hundreds of military targets to the bombardment. Its missile and drone forces have suffered heavy losses, and its ability to threaten Israel and neighboring states are reduced. The United States has also largely neutralized Iran’s conventional naval capabilities. Yet maintaining the closure of the Strait remains easy for Tehran.

Even if the Islamic Republic were to lose 90 percent of its missile arsenal and be left without a navy, the limited capability it retains to fire projectiles at tankers passing through a narrow six-nautical-mile shipping channel could be enough to deter vessels from entering the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, it remains unclear whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has deployed naval mines in the area. Even a small number of underwater mines could take months to locate and remove.

A Persian-language account on X, responding to a pro-regime user, wrote: “Much of what Iran is experiencing today stems from the grand designs of the psychopathic Qassem Soleimani: the dream of closing the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a presence in Yemen to block the Bab el-Mandeb, and deploying forces in Syria to extend influence toward the Mediterranean and even Gibraltar. Ultimately, the vision of placing a global crown and scepter in Khamenei’s hands only fueled his ambitions further.”

Meanwhile, government-controlled media in Iran continue to emphasize Tehran’s ability to strike regional targets and maintain pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. This messaging appears aimed at sustaining morale among regime forces, especially as Israeli drones increasingly target even small concentrations of security personnel on Tehran’s streets. Tasnim, the news outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, mentioned Hormuz dozens of times on its Telegram channel during a 24-hour period between March 12 and 13.

Yet it remains far from certain that Mojtaba Khamenei is alive or in good health, because he has still not appeared in public. The statement, read on national television by a news anchor, contains several contradictions that raise questions about its authorship.

For example, the text mentions relatives of Mojtaba Khamenei who were killed in the opening hours of the February 28 bombardment but fails to mention his mother. If he had personally authored the statement, it would be unusual for him not to refer to his closest surviving family member among those affected.

Another curious element is the claim that he was unaware of his own selection as supreme leader until hearing it announced on television. That is implausible. Speculation about Mojtaba’s possible appointment began almost immediately after his father’s death and dominated Iranian media and public discussion for days. If he is alive and in good health, it is difficult to imagine that he remained unaware of such widespread debate.

At the same time, some indications suggest that the regime’s top leadership may have relocated to the northeastern city of Mashhad. The city, home to the shrine of the eighth Shi’ite Imam and reportedly the future burial place of Ali Khamenei, lies at the far eastern edge of Iran, making it one of the most distant targets for American and Israeli aircraft. Photographs from recent meetings indicate that senior officials have been gathering in a government building there in recent days.

The question now becomes whether Mashhad, alongside Tehran and Iran’s Persian Gulf ports, will become a new focus for ongoing attacks.