Regime Change
Trump says ‘Let’s just finish the job’
They Describe Crowds, Repeat Official Narratives, and Report Imagery Presented to Them, Without Looking More Deeply
The Rhetoric from Iran’s Official Platforms Shows That the Islamic Republic’s Ideological Foundations Remain Unchanged
Many Are Noting Mojtaba Khamenei’s Absence on the Funeral’s First Day, but There Were Other Sideshows
Government Media Present Iran as a Central Actor Seeking to Define the Rules of a New Regional Order
The Memorandum Helps Recast the Regime as the Custodian of Iranian Sovereignty, Rather than a Phase in Its Political Evolution
Tehran Seeks Not Only a Deal with Washington but Also a Regional Framework That Makes Future Military Pressure More Costly
There Is Growing Unease as Debate Intensifies over the Costs of a Confrontational Foreign Policy and the Country’s Direction
No Agreement, Not This One and Not a Better One, Can Permanently Guarantee That Iran Never Builds a Nuclear Weapon
Iran’s Foreign Minister Reassured Hardliners That Negotiations Do Not Represent Political Rapprochement with the United States
Iran’s Negotiator Suggests That the Regime Is Simultaneously Pursuing Negotiations and Calibrated Military Escalation
Iran May Believe That Escalation Can Alter the Strategic Equation, Increase Pressure on Washington, and Secure Concessions
Trump Continues to Express Optimism About Reaching a Deal, Despite Little Evidence That One Is Within Reach
The Gap Between Washington’s Optimism and Tehran’s Rhetoric Suggests the Two Sides Are Not Negotiating with the Same Assumptions
Military Officials May Believe the Civilian Governing Structure Is Too Fragmented and Indecisive to Manage the Country
Iran’s Broader Objective Appears to Be the Gradual Decoupling of Arab Oil Producers of the Persian Gulf from the U.S. Security Umbrella
Activists Warn That Signing the Agreement Could Mean Many Iranians Will Accuse Trump of Abandoning the Iranian People
Factions Within Tehran’s Power Structure May Have an Interest in Encouraging Such Conspiracy Theories
Meeting Gulf Arab Leaders in an Airport Would Save Face for Both Sides but Break the Barrier That Has Kept Pahlavi Out
Tehran Claims Trump Is in a No-Win Situation, Zigzagging Between Negotiations and Threats of Renewed Military Action