Strait of Hormuz
Tehran Appears to Be Moving Toward Conditional Access, While Retaining the Ability to Disrupt Maritime Traffic
It Would Be a Simple Decision for the President to Say No Cargo Can Leave the Strait Without U.S. Approval
Alternative Routes Could Take Years to Negotiate and Construct, so the Global Energy System Remains Tied to the Strait
To the Region, It Will Be Clear That the Will of the U.S. Was Thwarted by Iranian Action
History Suggests Coastal Pressure and Limited War Could Force Tehran’s Hand
The Danger Is Not Just Erosion of Freedom of Navigation, but Also Iran’s Direct Financing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Terror
Oil Storage and Fuel Infrastructure Have Sustained Damage, with No Short-Term Outlook for Restoring Exports to Pre-Conflict Levels
The Threat to Strike Anywhere U.S. Forces May Be ‘Hiding’ Comes as Trump Again Postponed Attacks on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
It Appears Increasingly Likely That If Iran’s de Facto Control of the Strait of Hormuz Is to Be Broken, It Will Ultimately Require Direct U.S. Action
Washington Has Built up a Crisis-Response Network Capable of Amphibious Operations, Rapid Air Assault, and Swift Reinforcement
Iraq Has Not Reduced Output Due to Policy Decisions or Quotas—It Has Shut Down Production Because It Cannot Export
Many Countries May Try to Negotiate Arrangements with Tehran, to Avoid an Open-Ended Military Effort to Secure the Waterway
As War Accelerates Around Iran, Europe Answers With Delay, Doubt, And Strategic Paralysis
Disputes Between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region May Limit Demand for Northern Iraqi Crude