Middle East Forum Executive Director Gregg Roman joined Washington Watch to discuss the nineteenth day of U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, the condition of the Islamic Republic’s leadership after major battlefield losses, and what military options remain for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Roman argued that senior regime casualties have accelerated internal instability, outlined five steps the United States could take to break Iran’s blockade strategy, and said major conflict may continue for weeks even if lower-intensity operations extend for months.
WASHINGTON WATCH: The U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran is now in day nineteen as the conflict continues to escalate. Earlier today, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee that while the regime in Iran appears to remain intact, the government has been largely degraded. Meanwhile, global energy markets are reacting sharply as oil prices rise amid limited transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Bottom line: where are we now in this conflict, and where is all of this headed?
ROMAN: I think the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the government, the Assembly of Experts, the Guardian Council, and all vestiges of the Islamic Republic are reeking of desperation. They are trying to increase attacks they believe are punitive to their Gulf neighbors, to Israel, to the United States, and to thirteen different countries affected by their violence, all in an effort to push others toward suing for peace.
ROMAN: But in the end, the temporary increase in energy prices, the damage to Gulf energy markets, and the incessant attacks on Israeli civilian locations and American bases will be worth the final conclusion, which I believe will be the fall of this regime.
ROMAN: Based on intelligence assessments not only from Tulsi Gabbard today but also from senior U.S. military intelligence leadership, the longer the president keeps pressing, the greater the likelihood there will be a new government in Iran by the end of this operation.
WASHINGTON WATCH: U.S. intelligence says the Iranian government remains intact, although heavily degraded. Given that, are we any closer to regime change now than when Operation Epic Fury began?
ROMAN: On the first day of this operation, the regime was changed. The supreme leader was taken out. Forty generals, senior ministers, intelligence officials, and those connected to the supreme leader’s office were removed from the chessboard.
ROMAN: Others replaced them, but there is not a very deep bench when it comes to those willing both to uphold Iran’s theocracy and sacrifice themselves for it.
ROMAN: There are fewer true ideological loyalists today than there were at the start of the operation. More than 2,200 Iranian casualties have already been reported, many of them senior regime officials, and those degradation strikes need to continue.
ROMAN: Even at lower levels, provincial governors, mid-ranking commanders, and Basij militia members are adapting defensively. Instead of manning checkpoints openly, they are hiding under bridges. Instead of patrol cars, they are taking taxis. Instead of uniforms, many are dressing in civilian clothes because they believe an insurgency may be coming.
ROMAN: At the same time, parts of the Iranian state unlike what we saw in Libya or Iraq may be willing to strike a bargain with the United States. Officials in agriculture, oil, transportation, and even local police are showing signs of defections. That creates a possible middle ground between removing ideologues and working with partners willing to support a pluralistic transitional government.
WASHINGTON WATCH: Let’s turn to the Strait of Hormuz. What military options exist to break the blockade there?
ROMAN: We just published a paper outlining five options for the U.S. Navy and CENTCOM.
ROMAN: First, the United States and Israel should support an insurgency against the IRGC in Arab Iranian majority provinces surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. These are areas that have been heavily suppressed for forty years and could become pressure points.
ROMAN: Second, this has to hurt China. If Beijing does not feel pressure through disrupted oil supplies, Iran will have less reason to back down.
ROMAN: Third, there are land alternatives. Instead of moving oil through the Persian Gulf, routes can shift west through Iraq into Turkey and onward toward the Red Sea.
ROMAN: Fourth and fifth, officials directly responsible for the blockade should be punished, and convoy operations should be considered, similar to historical precedents such as Operation Praying Mantis in the late stages of the Iran-Iraq War.
WASHINGTON WATCH: Do you think this conflict ends soon?
ROMAN: I do not. I think we are looking at weeks of major conflict, but lower-intensity combat operations — similar to the no-fly zone period in Iraq — could continue for months.
