Middle East Forum chief strategist Jim Hanson joined Fox News to assess the current phase of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, arguing that the military fight is effectively over and the regime has already lost. Hanson said the central question now is whether Tehran collapses or persists in a weakened state, as U.S. efforts shift toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling remaining regime capabilities. He added that while Iran’s conventional military has been degraded, its asymmetric “dirty tricks” networks remain active, requiring continued operations to secure lasting strategic outcomes.
FOX: Okay, Jim Hanson is former U.S. Army Special Forces and chief strategist for the Middle East Forum, and he joins us now. Great to see you, Jim. So big picture, real quickly, where do you see—where are we right now in this conflict?
HANSON: The open military fight is over and the regime lost. The question now is are they going to fall soon or will they hold on and be deadenders? And as your guest previously said, the Strait of Hormuz has to open for this to be a win for the president. And he’s going to do that. And I think anybody who knows the military, when they heard that the A-10 Warthogs are now hunting Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz, and the last thing some of those guys see before they become an oil slick is one of those coming down at them—that’s good news. That’s a serious way to deal with the problem. And I think the Strait will open relatively soon.
FOX: So the first 10–15 layers of the regime have been eliminated. Who’s making decisions right now in Iran?
HANSON: The people who aren’t smart enough to take the money and run. Treasury Secretary Bessent said, “We know where your money is.” Now, of course, they’ll have their own stashes that we may not know about—maybe Bitcoin, whatever. But the smart ones should be looking for an exit strategy and a place to hole up and sit on the beach somewhere, as opposed to becoming the next guy on that eliminated list that keeps getting too big to even show on your screen.
FOX: Do you think that somebody—that those people—could get out and get out with money if they chose to do that?
HANSON: I think there are deals to be made with our dealmaking president if they bring something to the table. And you’ve got to bring something to the table that dismantles the regime. You’ve got to help. So if you want to get out, we can kill them—keep killing them—that’s cheap. If you want to get out and get a deal, you better bring some information. Tell us where the uranium is for sure. You do some things that make it better for us to help end this and let the Iranian people have a government that serves their needs and doesn’t threaten the rest of the world.
FOX: Over the past couple of months, we’ve gotten used to watching our forces take out those drug boats leaving Venezuela. It gives maybe the false impression—or the correct impression—that it would be very easy to find anybody operating in the Strait of Hormuz who’s laying mines. Am I wrong to assume that it’s just as easy to do that there?
HANSON: No, it’s more complicated. There are a lot of places, and unlike the drug dealers who only had a few ports where they were coming out of, the Iranians have dug tunnels and hidden their stuff. They’ve got a pretty robust asymmetric warfare capability that still remains. Their military is gone, but their dirty tricks departments are still operational. So we’ve got some work to do. There’ll be some bombing and other things, but we’ll get it cleaned up. The oil will flow, and then the entire region and the world can enjoy the fruits of President Trump’s good idea.
Summary:
Jim Hanson argues the military phase of the conflict is effectively over and the Iranian regime has already lost. The remaining question is whether it collapses or survives in a weakened state, as the U.S. shifts toward forcing strategic outcomes like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling regime capabilities.
