Iran Is Confident About Victory. Only Strategic Setback Can Change That

Iran does not seem interested in a new ceasefire. The Islamic Republic media and officials talk about continuing the current conflict to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, with nobody, at least yet, daring to propose a ceasefire agreement.

Khabar Online cited President Donald Trump’s new tariffs as evidence that he will not honor any ceasefires, and that the Islamic Republic should not accept any. The regime media continue to portray the current phase as unprovoked, omitting Iran’s assaults on shipping earlier in July that were the casus belli.

Iran is also looking into alternative economic routes to continue the war. Pointing out that Iran borders 15 countries, including cross-Caspian and cross-Persian Gulf countries, Gilan Governor Hadi Haghshenas said, “Iran is not a country on which one can impose a blockade. … If the United States imposes a blockade on the southern maritime route, what can it do with the other parts of the country? What can it do with the Caspian Sea, land borders, and railroads? They cannot block the transit into and out of our country with bombardment.”

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seeks to implement this policy. He attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s meeting of the ministers of Foreign Affairs, where participants condemned the United States for the war, and held one-on-one meetings with his counterparts from Central Asia and Pakistan. No side has yet released a readout of these meetings, but alternative trade routes were on the agenda.

During the summit, Araghchi also condemned the United States for starting the war while diplomacy was underway, though in Persian he said diplomacy was only a ruse to make the United States look bad. He told Tasnim News that his counterparts praised Iran’s resilience and reiterated Iran’s position to control the Strait of Hormuz. While there, Araghchi reportedly met with his Uzbek counterpart, Bakhtiyor Odilovich Saidov, to discuss regional tensions and economic ties. A phone call between the two countries’ presidents followed.

Iran continues to consult with Oman to cooperate on the Strait, both with a working delegation and a direct phone call between Araghchi and his Omani counterpart, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi.

The Iranian regime feels confident. Nour News, close with the Supreme National Security Council, questioned U.S. deterrence in a lengthy essay. It cited Trump’s retreat from his threat to attack Iran’s infrastructure before the April ceasefire, and it argued that Trump’s threats of escalation increased oil prices and had the reverse effect of what Trump wanted. Multiple Iranian outlets have covered reports of low U.S. munitions.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya base, stated on July 24, 2026, that Iran will kill an American servicemember for every Iranian killed in the war. Khatam al-Anbiya base is the most powerful headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has set the direction of the war. According to Iran’s Ministry of Health, U.S. strikes have killed 59 Iranians during the current phase of the hostilities, with 666 injured. Abdollahi did not limit his threat to the current war, leaving open both future proxy and direct attacks.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately warned the region’s civilian populations to stay away from U.S. bases. The statement began with a Qur’anic phrase, the full verse of which reads: “Fight them until there is no fitnah (conspiracy) and [until] religion is [acknowledged to be] for Allah. But if they cease, then there is to be no aggression, except against the oppressors.”

Iran’s strategic success in the previous phase of the war has emboldened the regime and, for now, silenced the anti-war camp. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is intent to continue the war. Only strategic setback, such as liberation of the Strait of Hormuz and a sustained economic blockade in which Iran’s neighbors participate, will change the regime’s mind.