For years, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad relied on Iranian forces to help suppress protesters and rebel groups in Syria. When Russia intervened militarily in 2015 at Iran’s request, Assad and those around him believed they had secured the survival of the regime. They interpreted battlefield stalemate as triumph. That confidence hardened into hubris, leaving the Syrian leadership unwilling to confront the corruption and weaknesses that continued to hollow out the state.
Similar overconfidence now emerges in Tehran, with Iranian officials speaking pure fantasy in the regime media.
The triumphalism following the ceasefire seems to have encouraged a belief that the impossible has become achievable.
Hojatoleslam Gholamreza Ghasemian, who holds several positions, including head of the Imam Reza Jihad Base and head of a network of seminary schools, declared on state television, “We should negotiate with the United States after we have occupied New York or Washington, and after we have arrested and handcuffed [President Donald] Trump and brought him before Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and let his eminence then decide what to do with that ‘yellow dog.’ Then we can begin to negotiate with them.”
Following both the funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which the regime crafted to suggest overwhelming public support, and the ceasefire with the United States after what Iranian leadership declared as major American concessions in the Memorandum of Understanding, the Iranian leadership appears convinced that it is invincible.
The triumphalism following the ceasefire seems to have encouraged a belief that the impossible has become achievable. Subsequent actions reflected that confidence, including attacks on Saudi and Qatari shipping, apparently based on the assumption that Washington would either choose to not respond or that retaliation would be brief and produce further concessions by the Trump administration.
Instead, the outcome has been protracted strikes on military targets and a fragile energy system pushed further toward crisis. This week, many of Iran’s major cities have experienced widespread electricity cuts. Some outages were scheduled, but some came without warning. When Mehdi Chamran, head of the Tehran Municipality Council, was asked why some of the power cuts happened without warning, he said, “If you knew what electric installations were hit two days ago, you would not ask this question.”
For many Iranians, the consequences extend beyond losing air conditioning during the height of summer. Large numbers of urban residents live in high-rise apartment blocks where water pumps depend on electricity. When the power fails, taps run dry and food spoils. Chicken farmers face the loss of their livestock. Small businesses, already struggling under economic pressure, now find themselves unable to operate for hours at a time—while regime figures continue sabre-rattling, unconcerned about the pain that ordinary Iranians suffer.
“Our soldiers don’t go to sleep or have a nap when it’s time for rest. They collapse from exhaustion in the heat.”
Another striking example came from Sattar Hedayatkhah, a former member of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly. Tabnak reported that he proposed, “If every Iranian gives one dollar a month, after 12 months it becomes one billion. We’ll then find some American who will kill Trump.” He then reportedly removed his hat before the audience and continued, “Tonight, sisters, pour your gold jewelry into my hat so we can take revenge.”
The daily reality confronting ordinary Iranians stands in stark contrast to the rhetoric dominating the discourse Iranian media report. In southern Iran, the U.S. military struck the barracks of Iran’s 388th Brigade of the regular army. The attack killed 10 soldiers and critically injured more than 60.
At the same time, a video circulated in the Persian-speaking social media showing a member of Iran’s armed forces describing conditions on the ground. “Our soldiers don’t go to sleep or have a nap when it’s time for rest. They collapse from exhaustion in the heat.” He continues, “It’s okay for those who keep drumming up the war to do so from their comfort zones in air-conditioned buildings, but they should come here in the South and experience the arduous conditions here.” His comments capture a widening disconnect between those making increasingly ambitious declarations and those bearing the true cost of the continued conflict.
The latest U.S. strikes have focused largely on targets in southern and coastal regions of Iran. On Iranian social media, one recurring sentiment has been that the leadership seems more concerned with developments in southern Lebanon than with protecting southern Iran itself.
