The recent escalations by jihadist groups in Syria constitute unforeseen complications to the diplomatic strategies of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States aimed at coaxing President Bashar al-Assad away from Iran’s orbit. The potential exchange of sanctions relief for a strategic reorientation by Assad has been a point of discussion between the four countries for some time, but the current dynamics in Syria have cast a shadow over these ambitions.
The Syrian conflict, now entering its 13th year, has long been a proxy battleground for regional and global powers. Iran’s support for Assad has been crucial, not only for maintaining his regime but also in expanding Iranian influence at the expense of Sunni-majority states and their allies. In Assad’s precarious position, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have seen an opportunity to redraw the regional power map by offering economic incentives in exchange for his distance from Tehran.
However, the recent major assault by Turkish-backed jihadist groups on the cities of Aleppo and Hama and the Israeli military’s continued strikes against Iranian assets in Syria have disrupted this calculation. The situation is further complicated by the major blow Israel served to Hezbollah in the last months, inadvertently exposing the fragility of Assad’s position without the full backing of its Iranian shield.
Read the full article at the Times of Israel.
