Khamenei Raises Specter of Regional War Amid Unrest at Home

On February 1, 2026, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened a regional war should the United States launch a military operation against Iran, an event now quite possible. In a lengthy speech, Khamenei accused President Donald Trump of orchestrating unrest inside Iran and asserted that the uprising had been crushed, following unprecedented anti-government protests in January.

“They talk about war, about aircraft and warships—this is nothing new. Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” Khamenei said. Notably, this sentence did not appear on the English-language version of his official website and was highlighted only by local Iranian media.

The threat of regional war is perhaps directed more toward Iran’s Arab oil-producing neighbors than Israel, since during the June 2025 Israeli and U.S. air campaign, Tehran did launch missiles at Israel. While Qatar is a close friend, Saudi Arabia’s oil installations were once attacked by Iranian drones and missiles in September 2019, when Trump tightened the oil sanctions noose against the Islamic Republic.

Other officials echoed Khamenei’s threats. On February 1, Salar Velayatmadar, a member of parliament’s National Security Commission, said that Trump’s words were irrelevant and would not alter Iran’s behavior. He added that any attempt by the United States to threaten Iran’s infrastructure—such as its energy sector or export terminals—would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb and would also render the Suez Canal unsafe.

That same day, parliament convened with lawmakers wearing uniforms of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and chanting “Death to America!” Officials also condemned the European Union’s decision to designate the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, warning that European interests would face consequences.

A London-based Iranian journalist wrote on X that these statements were not intended for Washington but for domestic audiences still shaken by January’s mass killings of protesters. According to this view, officials are attempting to project strength and intimidate the public, calculating that if a U.S. strike fails to materialize, it would crush public morale and prevent further protests.

On January 31, a series of explosions at multiple locations across Iran fueled speculation that the United States—possibly alongside Israel—had begun a long-anticipated air campaign. No similar incidents were reported the following day. Some analysts believe the U.S.-Israel alliance may be probing Iran’s air defenses and command-and-control responses, deliberately sustaining tension while gathering intelligence for a possible future strike.

Against this backdrop, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, traveled to Iran on January 31 for talks aimed at easing regional tensions, according to Doha. In a meeting with Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, he reiterated Qatar’s support for all efforts to reduce tensions in the region.

Some commentators on social media speculated that the Qatari visit may have carried a final message from Trump to Iran’s leadership. Larijani, for his part, used the meeting to suggest that secret contacts with Washington remain ongoing. Earlier reports indicated that Tehran may be willing to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium to prevent a U.S. attack.

Meanwhile, security forces continue a crackdown on protesters, carrying out executions and arresting even school students suspected of participating in demonstrations or protesting in classrooms. The fate of tens of thousands of detainees remains unknown. It is unclear how many have received death sentences in secret, summary trials, or how soon those sentences may be carried out. Some fear that in the event of a foreign attack, many detainees could be killed and later presented as civilian casualties.