North Africa stands on the edge of a historic shift. For decades, a cold war between Morocco and Algeria has suffocated the Maghreb’s potential, trapping millions in stagnation. Now, thanks to Washington’s bold strategic alignment with Rabat, the United States is finally turning the page. A peace deal — anchored in Morocco’s sovereignty and the U.S.’s long-term security vision — could transform the region into a stable, interconnected frontier of prosperity. Yet behind this optimism hides a dangerous reality: peace with Morocco would not stabilize Algeria. It would expose it. The end of the rivalry will rip away the regime’s last illusion of legitimacy, forcing Algerians to confront the rot within their own state.
The United States and the New Atlantic Frontier
The United States’s unwavering support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara is not a diplomatic whim; it’s a cornerstone of a durable regional strategy. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have affirmed Rabat’s autonomy plan as the only serious and lasting solution to the conflict. Washington’s stance is not just symbolic—it is a firewall against instability stretching from the Atlantic to the Sahel. Through its cooperation with Morocco under the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership, the US ensures that North Africa’s most reliable ally remains the anchor of security and modernization in a volatile neighborhood.
This American posture is reshaping international opinion. European powers are no longer indulging Algeria’s obstructionism. The United Kingdom calls Morocco’s plan “the most credible and pragmatic,” Spain has aligned itself with Rabat, and Ghana describes the proposal as “the only realistic and sustainable basis” for peace. The tide has turned: Morocco’s vision has global legitimacy, while Algiers finds itself isolated, clinging to a grievance that the world has already moved past. The battle for Western Sahara has been politically lost by Algeria—and with it, the last justification for its authoritarian permanence.
The Great Maghreb Robbery
What this half-century feud has stolen from the region is nothing short of criminal. The sealed borders, the severed transport routes, and the frozen trade have condemned millions to poverty. If the Maghreb were integrated, goods could move freely from Tunis to Marrakech, and North Africa could rise as a single economic bloc. But Algiers has made sure that never happens.
The economic cost of this political hatred is staggering. The International Monetary Fund estimates that greater regional openness could add a full percentage point to annual growth rates. The World Bank goes further: if the Maghreb formed a unified trade zone with the European Union, Algeria’s per capita GDP could rise by 27%. That figure is not theoretical — it’s the wealth Algerians have been denied by their rulers’ paranoia. For every year that Algiers fuels hostility toward Morocco, Algerian citizens lose jobs, infrastructure, and opportunity. The regime’s obsession with Morocco is not foreign policy — it’s a self-imposed economic blockade, a deliberate act of national sabotage that keeps the country dependent on hydrocarbons and hopelessly trapped in decline.
When the Mirage Fades: Algeria’s Coming Implosion
The Western Sahara dispute is more than a territorial issue for Algeria — it is the linchpin of the regime’s survival narrative. Once peace is achieved and the “Moroccan enemy” vanishes from the propaganda machine, the state’s entire scaffolding of legitimacy collapses. What remains is an exhausted nation on the verge of revolt.
The statistics tell a story of systemic failure. Youth unemployment sits at roughly 26%, an explosive figure in a country where nearly two-thirds of the population is under thirty. This generation has never seen real opportunity; their futures are mortgaged to a regime that invests more in tanks than in education. Algeria spends more than £18 billion a year on its military — the highest defense budget in Africa — yet its young people are denied jobs, housing, and hope.
That is the ticking time bomb: a young, angry, and digitally connected population discovering that their government’s “foreign threat” was a lie. A peace deal will not calm Algeria — it will expose it. The façade of strength, built on decades of propaganda and military excess, will crumble the moment the Moroccan question disappears.
Managing the Aftershock
The United States and its allies must brace for what comes next. Supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan is the right move for regional stability, but it will trigger political earthquakes in Algiers. Once the peace framework is in place, international institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank must be ready to step in with comprehensive reform packages. Economic diversification, private sector revitalization, and transparent governance must become the pillars of Algeria’s post-rivalry reconstruction.
The end of the Morocco–Algeria conflict will mark the birth of a new Maghreb—but not without pain. For Morocco and its partners, peace will mean progress. For Algeria’s ruling elite, it will mean exposure. The United States is right to bet on Morocco as the cornerstone of a stable Atlantic frontier. But the world must recognize the paradox at the heart of this transformation: peace will not end the Maghreb’s turmoil. It will ignite it—inside Algeria. And that implosion, once it begins, may finally free the Algerian people from the tyranny of a regime that built its survival on permanent enmity.
Published originally on October 25, 2025.
