How the West’s $57 Billion Bailout Is Funding Egypt’s Next Disaster

In the closing weeks of the year, Egypt staged a parliamentary election that was less a democratic exercise and more a choreographed formality. With parties friendly to President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s regime dominating the ballot, and irregularities ranging from vote-buying to the exclusion of opponents, the outcome—a rubber-stamp legislature set to rubber-stamp the extension of el-Sisi’s rule past 2030—was never in doubt.

So why is the West giving a free pass to an authoritarian regime determined to secure indefinite one-man rule?

The answer is brutally simple: el-Sisi is perceived as strategically indispensable. He is the gatekeeper of the Suez Canal, the primary manager of the Rafah crossing, the crucial mediator between Israel and Hamas, and the last line of defense against regional chaos. For the West and for Israel, the fear of Egyptian instability—the collapse of a nation of 110 million people struggling with high poverty—outweighs any commitment to human rights or democratic principles. In the stark calculus of regional security, continuity currently trumps concerns over democracy.

Since January 2024, Egypt has secured approximately $57 billion in bailout deals from Western and Gulf partners. This colossal injection of cash is theoretically intended to stabilize the collapsing economy. In reality, it serves as a war chest for a security state determined to maintain absolute control at the expense of national welfare.

While Washington and Jerusalem focus on maintaining counter-terrorism and Gaza coordination, el-Sisi’s government has leveraged this funding to enter its second decade in power by deepening wholesale repression. The regime systematically detains and punishes peaceful critics, activists, and protesters, effectively criminalizing dissent.

The most cynical demonstration of this repressive apparatus is a tactic known as “rotation.” This bureaucratic mechanism is used to circumvent due process and guarantee indefinite arbitrary detention. When political opponents, journalists, or human rights lawyers complete their prison sentences or reach the maximum pre-trial detention period, authorities simply levy new, often vague counter-terrorism charges against them, thus “rotating” them into a fresh case and keeping them indefinitely locked up. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk has publicly condemned this practice, noting that it is a tool used by the government to repress critical voices and deny basic rights to liberty.

This massive influx of Western cash and diplomatic cover is not being used to address Egypt’s structural debt crisis—where public debt exceeds 86% of GDP —or to alleviate the staggering poverty crippling the population. Instead, el-Sisi’s economic model prioritizes extravagant, opaque infrastructure projects, many of which are managed by the military.

Billions are channeled into lavish, military-led undertakings, such as the $58 billion new administrative capital. These investments, critics argue, result in “empty cities” and often suffer repeated setbacks and lack feasibility studies.

The consequence of this military-industrial dominance is a deepening crisis in core civilian services. While the state pours resources into showcase projects, citizens must travel dozens of kilometers to find a functioning hospital, or wait hours for a civil registry office or an ATM.

The strategic flaw in the US and Israeli calculus is now glaringly apparent: by prioritizing immediate stability through financial and diplomatic support for el-Sisi, the West is accelerating the systemic rot that will eventually cause the state to fracture.

Widespread poverty, economic stagnation, and the systematic repression of all avenues for political expression are the precise conditions that fueled the explosive uprisings of the 2011 “Arab Spring”. Moreover, this chaos creates the ideal political and social vacuum for the rise of extremist movements, including the political wing of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, which won elections in 2012 before being ousted.

To secure long-term stability on its southern flank, Israel and its American ally must demand a pivot. The billions flowing into Cairo must be conditioned not only on security cooperation, but on an end to the “rotation” of dissidents, transparency in state spending, and real governance reform. Continuing to buy short-term quiet is merely prepaying for the inevitable, devastating storm that will once again engulf the Middle East and threaten to undo decades of strategic cooperation.

Published originally on December 9, 2025.