A perception exists among government circles and media in Tehran that President Donald Trump does not want war with Iran and instead seeks an agreement that would secure his legacy as a peacemaker—perhaps even earning him the Nobel Peace Prize.
On May 4, 2025, the hardline Farhikhtegan newspaper concluded that the U.S. president prefers to maintain economic and diplomatic pressure over direct confrontation, and argued that Tehran’s best option is to manage this pressure. The paper noted that Trump has effectively abandoned the 12 conditions he set in 2018 for Iran’s compliance and has refrained from raising the issue of Iran’s regional proxies—distancing himself from his Secretary of State Marco Rubio. It added that he has severed ties with figures such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, whom the paper identified as key advocates of an uncompromising approach toward Tehran. “In his second term, Trump has become more pragmatic,” Farhikhtegan declared.
[Trump] has expressed confidence that the U.S. and Iran can reach a nuclear agreement without resorting to force.
Indeed, on several occasions, Trump has stated that a military strike on Iran “can wait” and has expressed confidence that the U.S. and Iran can reach a nuclear agreement without resorting to force. One such remark in mid-April received wide coverage in Iranian media and was subtly praised by government-approved commentators. The state-controlled media also welcomed the removal of Mike Waltz as national security advisor, viewing the move as a setback for those pushing for military action against Iran.
However, the Houthi missile attack on Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport on May 4, 2025, posed Iran’s most serious challenge to Trump since the president’s March 17, 2025, warning that he would attribute any attack by the Houthis to Iran. “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences — and those consequences will be dire,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Following weeks of U.S. airstrikes against Houthi targets and ongoing nuclear talks with Tehran, Iran’s allies in Yemen escalated by targeting Ben Gurion International Airport, Israel’s main civilian airport. The attack could not have taken place without Tehran’s knowledge and likely approval, suggesting that Iran is still leveraging its proxies to exert pressure on Washington. Targeting the airport just outside Tel Aviv also may reflect Tehran’s desire to test the Trump-Netanyahu dynamic, after the perception emerged that Trump sidelined Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by initiating talks with Iran. Government-aligned media in Tehran regularly claim that Trump has neutralized Netanyahu, denying him the option of blocking nuclear talks or pushing for military action.
In the hours following the Houthi missile attack, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that any attack on the Islamic Republic would trigger retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the region. Top Iranian officials issued similar threats throughout March and April.
Yet, the key question is whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is miscalculating Trump’s appetite for confrontation—and in doing so, strengthening the hand of those in Washington and Jerusalem who argue that Tehran is not serious about an agreement that would eliminate its path to a nuclear weapon.
The key question is whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is miscalculating Trump’s appetite for confrontation.
It is risky for Khamenei to assume that Trump will continue to veto military options, particularly considering the slow pace of the nuclear negotiations, the postponement of the fourth round of talks, and the recent missile attack on Israel. Domestically, Khamenei finds himself in a weakened position following the deadly explosion at a southern port near Bandar Abbas on April 26, 2025, and other recent suspicious incidents.
Meanwhile, relatively moderate figures within the ruling establishment continue to accuse hardliners of trying to sabotage the negotiations. It remains unclear how much influence hardliner spoilers currently exert over Khamenei—or whether they were behind the Houthi missile strike to derail the diplomatic process.
Either way, Khamenei is gambling with stakes far higher than even he can afford.
