Tripoli’s Drift Toward Ankara: Time for Washington to Rethink Its Stance

Moves by Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity have renewed tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both Libya’s willingness to advance the 2019 maritime memorandum with Turkey—an agreement that shreds established legal procedures—and Tripoli’s willingness to pressure Greece with a sharp increase in illegal migration have alarmed Greek authorities.

Greek officials view Libya’s position as a threat to regional stability. The agreement claims maritime zones that cut across established sea boundaries, ignore Greek islands, and undermine accepted interpretations of maritime law. At the recent European Council meeting, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis urged European Union leaders to re-engage on Libya, stressing the need for elections and legitimate governance. His remarks reflected Athens’ frustration over continued recognition of Tripoli despite its disregard for international norms.

Greece has responded along three strategic lines. Diplomatically, Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis has engaged with counterparts from Italy, Germany, France, and the United States. He is also undertaking a two-part diplomatic mission to Libya: first to Benghazi for talks with Khalifa Haftar, then to Tripoli on July 15 to meet western Libyan officials. His stated purpose is to explore a framework for maritime delimitation with western officials, though his real goal is to reach a framework for maritime delimitation based solely on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In recent statements, he called the 2019 memorandum “null and void.”

Greece has deployed two naval frigates and a support vessel off the Libyan coast. While the move officially responds to increasing illegal immigration, it also means to deter a new migration route from eastern Libya to Crete, just over 400 miles away.

At the European level, Athens seeks to leverage growing concern over migration from Libya. Mitsotakis raised the issue directly with Magnus Brunner, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, urging pressure to reduce flows. Brunner is set to visit Libya on July 8, accompanied by the interior ministers of Greece, Italy, and Malta. Athens sees this mission as an opportunity to frame the Libyan crisis as both a migration and security challenge for Europe.

Meanwhile, Turkey has continued to deepen its presence in Libya as part of its broader regional strategy. Turkish defense officials maintain that the 2019 agreement complies with maritime law. They also seek to empower authorities in Tripoli, which seeks a Muslim Brotherhood-style Islamist, over the rival, more secular House of Representatives government in Benghazi.

Tripoli’s decision to side with Ankara reflects a willingness to set aside international law in favor of tactical cooperation. Egyptian officials reportedly asked the United States to intervene and prevent Tripoli from ratifying the maritime agreement with Turkey. Cairo’s request is notable not only for its content, but also for its direct appeal to Washington, bypassing multilateral channels. Cairo fears that ratification would escalate tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and entrench Turkish influence.

Cairo’s action also signals that regional actors are no longer willing to treat the Libyan conflict as an internal matter or a frozen proxy dispute. Instead, they see it as a live arena of geopolitical competition, one with consequences for European and North African security architecture.

For Washington, Egypt’s appeal should serve as a wake-up call. The fact that both Athens and Cairo—two stable, U.S.-aligned states with divergent but overlapping interests—are independently urging intervention over the same issue should prompt a reassessment of current U.S. policy that tilts toward Tripoli. The so-called Government of National Unity’s repeated disregard for international law, and its willingness to contribute to regional volatility, should raise concerns in Washington about the costs of unqualified diplomatic support.