As European powers threaten to reimpose United Nations sanctions, Tehran’s foreign policy has grown increasingly erratic and defiant. On August 17, 2025, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general and current lawmaker threatened to strike Europe and even the United States with ballistic missiles.
Amir Hayat Moghaddam, a 40-year Revolutionary Guard veteran and now a member of parliament’s National Security Committee, survived Israel’s June airstrikes—likely because he was not on the target list. Speaking with unusual precision, he declared that the Revolutionary Guard has prepared plans to target Western capitals, including Washington, D.C. He even described the method: launching missiles from ships in international waters to overcome Iran’s 1,250-mile missile range limitation.
“We can target America from the sea.”
“We can target America from the sea. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has worked for 20 years on this capability, and it’s possible we have achieved it,” Moghaddam said. “America is 10,000 kilometers away, but we can bring our ships within 2,000 kilometers and strike Washington, New York, and other cities with missiles.”
Tehran-based Didban Iran published his remarks but removed them hours later—by then, however, media outlets worldwide had picked them up. It remains unclear whether Moghaddam spoke off the cuff or tailored his remarks to threaten the West and show that there are radical forces in the country.
That same day, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s advisor, Yahya Rahim-Safavi, warned that a second war is likely. “We are not in a ceasefire right now; we are in a state of war, and no protocol, regulation, or agreement has been written between us and the U.S. or Israel,” he said.
The regime’s expectation of renewed conflict followed closely on the heels of an extraordinary address by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On August 12, Netanyahu delivered a direct message to the Iranian people, promising to help resolve the country’s water crisis once the Islamic Republic falls. More strikingly, he urged Iranians to shed their fear and rise up, assuring them that Israel would confront regime forces sent to suppress protests.
“I urge you to be bold and brave. … Take risks for freedom, for your future, for your families.”
“I urge you to be bold and brave. Take risks for freedom, for your future, for your families. … Take to the streets. Demand justice, demand accountability. Protest tyranny. Build a better future for your families and for all Iranians,” Netanyahu declared.
His words electrified regime-change advocates and rattled state-controlled media and officials in Tehran. Dissidents flooded social media, urging people to take to the streets, claiming that Israeli drones would target security forces and prevent them from killing civilians as in past crackdowns. Many Iranians believe that another round of Israeli strikes would destroy more Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps bases, weakening any units deployed to crush protests.
On August 17, the semi-independent Rouydad 24 website reminded readers that a ceasefire is not a peace agreement, in reference to President Donald Trump’s June announcement that halted Israel’s air campaign. “Iran and Israel are currently in a ceasefire phase, but historical experience shows that a temporary halt in hostilities is not enough. A ceasefire is merely the silencing of artillery and the quieting of the battlefield; it cannot eliminate the roots of enmity, mistrust, and geopolitical rivalry,” the outlet wrote.
Meanwhile, alarming but unsubstantiated reports circulated, including claims that the United States has prepared 8,000 Islamic State fighters in Iraq to attack Iran. Such narratives resemble Tehran’s habitual tactic of frightening the public and casting itself as the last bulwark against barbarism.
Mehdi Tabatabai, head of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s press office, candidly summarized the regime’s predicament: “After all, we became engaged in a war, and even the pre-war situation resembled war, because there were maximum sanctions and maximum threats. And now, about 50 days after the fighting stopped, conditions are still far from stable, and we remain under constant threat.”
Tehran shows little sign of making major concessions to avert another Israeli assault.
Indeed, instability continues. On August 17, two major explosions and large fires were reported, part of a string of fifty-two unexplained incidents since Trump’s ceasefire. It remains unclear whether these were caused by Israeli jets, drones, or sabotage. Officials continue to dismiss the blasts as accidents or gas leaks—an excuse so overused that it has become a running joke among Iranians. One caricature depicted Netanyahu disguised as a gas company repairman visiting the homes of senior military commanders, saying, “I came to fix your gas leak.”
As August draws to a close and the British, French, and German deadline to restore United Nations sanctions approaches, Tehran shows little sign of making major concessions to avert another Israeli assault. Khamenei, the 85-year-old ruler, remains hidden from public view but almost certainly retains control of foreign policy. Still, voices within the regime increasingly hint at the need for compromise—perhaps even modest concessions at home—to stave off what many see as an existential threat.
