On January 16, 2026, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had “all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran.” Hours later, during the Tehran Friday prayer sermon, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (no relation to former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami) called for executing the detainees.
By default, the supreme leader should lead Tehran’s Friday prayer, but he also appoints substitutes to perform the duty when he is unavailable. Currently, Khatami is the most extremist deputy. To use a Persian phrase, Khatami does not drink water without Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s permission, especially when he gives the Friday sermon at such a critical juncture for the regime.
By deferring messaging to Khatami, Khamenei can embrace plausible deniability.
Since the June 2025 Twelve-Day War with Israel, Khamenei has not appeared in public nor led the Friday prayers, out of fear for his life. He could have reassured the regime’s supporters by leading it this Friday. It is also understandable that, at this point, he is terrified. But also, by deferring messaging to Khatami, Khamenei can embrace plausible deniability. His supporters get the point, while the outside world will dismiss Khatami’s words as a lunatic hardliner screaming into the wind. Such an approach is typical of the Islamic Republic.
Trump’s objective also remains ambiguous. During a speech before the Israeli-American Council, Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff said that Trump wanted to negotiate with Tehran over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and proxy forces. Some among the diaspora hope that Trump is just buying time for the detainees, as he transfers assets to the region in preparation for an attack. This is plausible.
But if Trump does not follow through with his threat, it will tarnish his credibility. Everyone in the region remembers that President Barack Obama did not enforce his “red line” against the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Most forget that this happened because Russia mediated between America and Syria to extract Syria’s chemical weapons. The price for the loss of credibility can be high and far-flung. Obama’s caving on Syria emboldened the Russians to annex Crimea and the Chinese to lie to him about having no intention to militarize the Spratly Islands.
Likewise, Iran has crossed Trump’s red line by massacring thousands of people. No diplomatic triumph will undo this. If Trump does not follow through with his threat, adversaries, such as Russia and China, will see his rhetoric as empty, as they did with Obama.
Trump should worry that the regime is just biding its time. He cannot assure that it will keep its word.
Trump deserves credit for the fact that the regime has not yet proceeded with mass executions, but the protesters remain in custody, and the regime likely will carry through on its threat as the pressure lifts. Even if the regime releases them, it has their information to find them later. Trump should worry that the regime is just biding its time. He cannot assure that it will keep its word, given the regime’s disregard for inconvenient international obligations. Khatami’s words, acting as Khamenei’s mouthpiece, should concern the U.S. government that this is the likeliest scenario.
But even if the regime keeps its word, it will be an irrecoverable blow to Iranian freedom. So far, Iranians have convinced themselves that previous revolts failed because Democrats were in the Oval Office or because Trump was distracted by other urgent matters. They will not be able to find an excuse this time. The conclusion will be that, first, the regime is too determined to overthrow without foreign help, and, second, the bipartisan consensus in Washington is against intervention.
