Nearly five months following a unilateral ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump to stop the bombing of the Sana’a-based Houthi rebels in exchange for an end to attacks on U.S. ships, Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to threaten the flow of civilian commercial vessels along the Red Sea. Two strikes claimed by Houthis within a week, near the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu, demonstrate the Houthis retain capabilities beyond their shores. Now, the Houthis apparent establishment of a foothold along Sudan’s coastline augments this threat.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to threaten the flow of civilian commercial vessels along the Red Sea.
Attacks on the Scarlet Ray and MSC Aby in early September raise new alarm over Houthi aggression and capabilities. This is not the first time the Houthis claimed the ability to strike ships in the northern Red Sea, but these attacks “set a new northern marker for the Houthis’ range” at nearly 600 miles from Yemen’s shores. The modus operandi raises further questions regarding the timing and manner with which the strikes occurred. Hisham Maqdashi, Yemen’s former deputy defense attaché in Washington, said the drone attack on the MSC Aby originated from a fishing dhow near the container vessel. This attack lies in contrast to strikes on the Magic Seas and the Eternity Sea in early July, which reportedly originated from small boats off the coast of Hodeidah [Hudaydah]. There is another plausible scenario, however, that could explain the Houthis’ sudden increase in range: drone, missile, or small boat launches from Sudan’s coastline.
East Africa, from Somalia to Sudan, provides opportunities for the Houthis as Yemen’s legitimate and the Combined Maritime Forces government shut down smuggling routes from Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Houthis co-opted, and Iran augmented, Yemen’s own legacy smuggling routes to establish ties with Somalia’s al-Shabaab and Puntland pirates. Iran now apparently facilitates the Houthi expansion into Sudan as the Islamic Republic renews relations with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s own Sudanese Armed Forces. The Houthis benefit from port and warehouse facilities in and around Port Sudan and can use its airport as a transit point for weapons and technology.
The strikes on the Scarlet Ray and MSC Aby vessels were only 160 miles from the Sudanese coastline. Use of Sudan’s coastline would allow the Houthis, and Iran, to deflect attention from battered Houthi areas in Hodeidah and Sana’a. The risk for the Houthis along the Red Sea increased late in 2024 when Iran’s spy ships left the general area of Bab-el-Mandab. The Combined Maritime Forces have seized a number of small vessels smuggling weapons for the Houthis this year, so the risks increase for Houthi operations 600 miles away from their shores.
The protracted wars in Sudan and Yemen are merging and spilling beyond their traditional areas of operation.
Evidence suggests Iran has transferred Mohajer-6 and Ababil drones and missile systems to the Sudanese Armed Forces beginning in October 2023. The flow of weapons continues as the Trump administration imposes new sanctions on al-Burhan and Islamist allies, including for documented use of chemical weapons. The United States also sanctioned Al-Bara’ ibn Malik Battalion, one of Sudan’s most active extremist militias. This group is central to Port Sudan’s military operations against the Rapid Support Forces that fight Burhan. By extension, them, it is part of the network to which Iran transfers weaponry. This raises concerns over potential Houthi access to chemical weapons to threaten neighbors or use against Yemeni rival forces.
The protracted wars in Sudan and Yemen are merging and spilling beyond their traditional areas of operation. While Washington and the West continue to view Houthi operations as limited in scope and geography, signs increase that the Houthis are intent on expanding their operations beyond the relatively narrow focus of current anti-Houthi naval activities. At the same time, the apparent interplay between Burhan and the Houthis shows the danger of allowing the Sudanese civil war to rage unabated.
