On the streets of Tunis, the atmosphere is heavy with the kind of static electricity that precedes a storm. For the past month, the iconic Habib Bourguiba Avenue has echoed with chants demanding the fall of the regime, a ghostly resonance of the 2011 revolution that the West once naively celebrated. But the nostalgia for democracy has been replaced by a grim struggle for survival. On January 21, 2026, the powerful Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT) is scheduled to launch a nationwide general strike. This is not merely a labor dispute over wages; it is the potential death knell for the social contract in North Africa’s former star pupil.
Europe and the US, however, remain paralyzed. They are held hostage by President Kais Saied, a leader who has mastered the dark art of the geopolitical shakedown, has successfully converted human desperation into hard currency, hermetically sealing his coastline to secure European funds while simultaneously opening his country’s doors to the West’s most dangerous adversaries.
The “Safe Country” Racket
To understand the paralysis in European capitals, one must look at the numbers. They reveal a transaction that is as effective as it is cynical. In 2023, nearly 96,000 migrants reached Italy from Tunisia, overwhelming Meloni’s government. In the first eleven months of 2025, that number plummeted to just 4,500.
To understand the paralysis in European capitals, one must look at the numbers.
This staggering 95 percent drop is not the result of improved economic conditions or a sudden resolution of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. It is the result of a protection racket. Saied has demonstrated that he possesses an “on/off” switch for migration. By turning the tap off, he has forced the European Union to designate Tunisia a “safe country” for returns, a legal fiction that allows Brussels to look the other way while Saied dismantles the judiciary and imprisons opponents like Chaima Issa under the draconian Decree 54.
The Pivot East: Tehran and Beijing
However, the payment of “protection money” has purchased neither loyalty nor exclusive influence. While European taxpayers fund his border guards, Saied is actively pivoting East, hedging his survival by courting the West’s primary strategic rivals.
The most alarming development is the deepening security relationship with Iran. Saied hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier this fall. The agenda was not limited to pleasantries; discussions are advanced regarding the reopening of direct flights between Tunis and Tehran. In the context of the current regional war involving Israel and Iran’s proxies, this is not about tourism. Direct flights would create a logistical airbridge for the “Axis of Resistance” into the Maghreb, potentially transforming Tunisia into a transit node for Iranian operatives or materiel just ninety miles from NATO territory.
The most alarming development is the deepening security relationship with Iran.
Simultaneously, Saied is handing the keys to Tunisia’s critical infrastructure to China. On December 22, 2025, the Tunisian Minister of Transport, Rachid Amri, held a high-level meeting with a Huawei delegation to discuss the “digitalization” of Tunisia’s ports, airports, and railways. While officially framed as “smart transport” modernization, this partnership effectively invites Beijing to build a digital panopticon on the southern Mediterranean coast. Integrating Chinese technology into Tunisia’s strategic entry points creates a “technological lock-in,” granting Beijing potential access to sensitive data on movement and logistics in a region critical to NATO’s southern flank.
The Autocrat’s Lifeline
Saied knows that his pivot to Iran and China might eventually alienate the West, so he is shoring up his financial defenses with help from fellow autocracies. Tunisia signed five major agreements with Saudi Arabia covering sectors from mining to media. This influx of Gulf capital provides the regime with a vital lifeline that does not come with the pesky human rights conditions attached to IMF loans or U.S. aid. It emboldens Saied to double down on his “security-centric” governance model, confident that he has found patrons who prioritize stability over liberty.
The Coming Explosion
Yet, all this geopolitical maneuvering may not be enough to save the regime from its own internal contradictions. The resignation of UGTT leader Noureddine Taboubi on December 24, amidst internal feuding and government pressure, has removed the only safety valve in the system. The UGTT has historically acted as a mediator between the street and the state.
The economic reality for the average Tunisian is untenable. Inflation has topped 10 percent, and the minimum wage has withered to barely €150 a month.Shortages of basic goods like coffee, sugar, and rice are endemic. Saied’s response has been to weaponize conspiracies, blaming “traitors” and migrants for the shortages while using the “Great Replacement” theory to redirect public anger toward sub-Saharan Africans.
The United States and the European Union are currently making a catastrophic strategic error. They are subsidizing a failing police state that is actively building an Iranian-aligned, Chinese-surveilled fortress in North Africa. By funding Saied’s security apparatus under the guise of migration management, the West is paying for its own encirclement.
Published originally on December 30, 2025.
