In the wake of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates’ oil infrastructure and ports, Abu Dhabi should support the Iranian people’s pursuit of regime change.
After its eight-year war with Iraq, the Islamic Republic cultivated close economic ties with the United Arab Emirates, largely due to its proximity, advanced ports, open trade policies, and Dubai’s re-export networks. Iranian businesses could reconnect with global markets, bypass international sanctions, and trade goods such as oil and agricultural products. Over time, this economic relationship not only significantly sustained Tehran’s economy but also its regional and international terrorist activities.
The United Arab Emirates should go beyond advocating for containment and instead lead the way in supporting regime change.
Despite this close economic relationship, Tehran did not spare the United Arab Emirates from its attacks. During Operation Epic Fury, the Islamic Republic launched more than 400 ballistic missiles, over 2,000 drones, and 19 cruise missiles at targets in the United Arab Emirates, more than it did against Israel. In response, Abu Dhabi cut diplomatic relations, closed its embassy in Tehran, and withdrew diplomatic personnel. Emirati security forces arrested individuals tied to Hezbollah and money changers connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and canceled residency visas for Iranians.
Following the ceasefire, Abu Dhabi made clear that any agreement with Tehran must not only include limits to its nuclear program but also restrict its ballistic missile program, drone program, support for terror proxies, and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
While such actions and statements are positive, the United Arab Emirates should go beyond advocating for containment and instead lead the way in supporting regime change. The United Arab Emirates should first designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, suspend diplomatic recognition of the Islamic Republic, expel Iranian diplomats, order the closure of Iran’s embassy in Abu Dhabi, and push the Arab League to adopt similar measures to deepen Tehran’s isolation.
Second, the Emirati leadership should engage with Iranian diaspora groups, including monarchists, university students, and republicans, who are committed to a unified secular Iran that seeks good relations with Israel, the Gulf Arab states, the United States, and the broader Western world. Additionally, Abu Dhabi should allow Iranian activists to set up shop in the Gulf state, creating space for coordination and advocacy against the regime in Tehran.
Since the early 1990s, the United Arab Emirates has opposed both Sunni and Shi’i Islamist movements.
Third, the United Arab Emirates, with assistance from Israel and the United States, should sponsor, recruit, and train an armed insurgency. Israel should provide to the Iranian people weapons that the Israel Defense Forces seized from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The Emirates should support this initiative by allowing its territory to serve as a transit and training hub where Iranians, both inside Iran and from the diaspora, can access weapons and coordinate insurgent activity against the regime.
Just as it supported the Egyptian military’s ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood from power in 2013, the United Arab Emirates should encourage defections by offering financial incentives to regular Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard officers and provide a haven for those who break with the regime, allowing them to organize an armed counterrevolution from within the Emirates.
Should Washington and Jerusalem decide to resume military operations against Tehran, Abu Dhabi should join with its allies and target the regime’s military capabilities and leadership.
Since the early 1990s, the United Arab Emirates has opposed both Sunni and Shi’i Islamist movements. Now, the “Little Sparta” has a chance to lead by backing the Iranian people’s effort to replace the current regime with a government similar to its own, one that prioritizes its citizens’ well-being and maintains positive relations with all peoples in the Middle East.
