Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at Middle East Forum, spoke with Tony Perkins on Washington Watch about Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and the broader trajectory of the conflict following recent U.S. strikes. Rubin argued that Tehran is reverting to a familiar 1980s playbook by attempting to mine the waterway, but said Iran’s own fuel dependence sharply limits how long it can sustain such disruption. He also noted growing uncertainty around the status of Mojtaba Khamenei, saying the absence of public appearances has fueled speculation that he may be severely injured or dead, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps potentially managing appearances of continuity. Rubin predicted that U.S. military pressure will likely focus on disabling the ports and vessels used for mining operations, minimizing long-term economic disruption. Looking beyond the immediate conflict, he said the current confrontation may last only a matter of weeks unless Washington chooses to pursue regime collapse directly, adding that Israeli strikes on paramilitary checkpoints in Tehran could help trigger renewed domestic protest before the Persian New Year.
HOST: The conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify twelve days after the United States launched strikes on Iran. Iran’s new supreme leader released a message stating that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut to pressure what he called “the enemy,” while vowing that Iran will avenge the blood of its martyrs. Given that the waterway supplies roughly a fifth of the world’s oil, Iran is clearly attempting to leverage global economic disruption to pressure Washington. Joining us now to analyze the latest developments is Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at Middle East Forum and senior fellow at American Enterprise Institute. Dr. Rubin, thanks for joining us.
RUBIN: Thanks for having me, Tony.
HOST: What do you make of the new supreme leader’s warning and the move to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed? We have only heard a statement read aloud. We have not seen him, and we do not know his condition. What is your assessment?
RUBIN: First of all, I am glad you made that distinction, because there has been no photo or video of Mojtaba Khamenei since his wife and father were reportedly killed in the February 28 bombing. There is widespread belief among Iranians that he may be severely injured or even dead, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is trying to maintain the appearance that everything is normal.
Putting that aside, Iran is returning to the same strategy it used in the 1980s, which is mining the Strait of Hormuz. But they are not going to be able to sustain that for long. While Gulf Arab states may temporarily lose export capacity, Iran itself depends on imported gasoline and cannot sustain disruption indefinitely. There is a ticking clock on Iran’s capabilities right now.
HOST: Some would argue this threat has long discouraged previous administrations from fully confronting Iran because of the oil risk. It seems President Trump acted despite that concern, accepting short-term pain for what could be long-term strategic gain.
RUBIN: I absolutely agree. If a campfire begins to spread, you extinguish it immediately rather than waiting until it consumes the forest. For decades we delayed. To mine the Strait of Hormuz, Iran must deploy small speedboats or medium-sized vessels from a limited number of ports. Those boats have limited range. The obvious military question is whether the United States can sink those vessels or shut down the ports they are using. I think that is what you are likely to see over the next few days, and much of the panic about gas prices will look misplaced afterward.
HOST: I agree that there may be short-term pain but potentially a more stable Middle East over time. What timeline do you see for this conflict?
RUBIN: I think we are looking at a maximum of a couple of weeks. President Trump will likely conclude that he has achieved his immediate objectives if Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities are sufficiently degraded. That does not necessarily mean regime change. If the regime survives, you could end up with a cycle similar to what Israel experienced with Hamas in Gaza Strip before October 2023 - periodic military operations whenever Iran rebuilds capabilities.
The alternative is removing the regime altogether. Despite claims that it remains durable, signs increasingly suggest that may not be true. One significant development today was Israel’s use of drones to strike paramilitary checkpoints in Tehran. These checkpoints were creating traffic as a shield, but the result is that those repressing the Iranian people are being targeted while civilians are not. I would expect renewed protest activity before the Persian New Year on March 21.
HOST: Are you concerned domestic pressure in the United States could lead to declaring victory too early?
RUBIN: Yes, because we have seen this before during Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis. I was in Yemen this summer, and anti-Houthi forces said they received no warning before President Trump declared victory and stopped the campaign. That is exactly what many regional actors fear now. However, Iran has made a major mistake by attacking so many countries, which means many governments now want Washington to finish the job.
HOST: Final word - your message to the president?
RUBIN: A limited investment now will save lives later. This is what his legacy may rest on. He has the opportunity to be remembered as the president who brought freedom not only to Venezuela but also to Iran.
