Middle East Forum chief strategist Jim Hanson argues that Iran is not consolidating power but scrambling under pressure, as internal divisions deepen and economic constraints tighten. He says the regime is running out of time, with limited ability to sustain oil production or evade the blockade.
Hanson adds that U.S. restraint is part of the strategy, allowing pressure to build while maintaining the option to escalate. He warns Iran should not mistake reduced strikes for weakness, as the U.S. retains the capability to act decisively if needed.
WATTERS: Jim Hanson’s a former U.S. Army Special Forces and chief strategist for the Middle East Forum. Jim, what do you think’s going on today in Tehran?
HANSON: I think they are scrambling. And anybody who says this fracture between the religious leadership, the military, and the civilian political leadership is a bad thing doesn’t understand how to break a tyrannical regime.
Of course we want them arguing with each other. And obviously I think the military will come out on top, as you said. They do have the guns. But in the end, they don’t have much in the way of weapons left. And anytime they poke any of those weapons out of their holes, we destroy them.
So they’ve got a very short window before they run out of money. They run out of the ability to pump oil. They already can’t sell it, and there’s not any money coming in to run the regime. Anybody who thinks they’re ahead in this game is not paying attention.
WATTERS: So is it more of a negotiating tactic, or is it them trying to consolidate power as they lead negotiations going forward?
HANSON: They want the world and anybody else to think that they are ahead. That’s why you hear them say things like, “Oh, 26 ships broke the blockade.” Well, no — 26 ships got turned back, and the 27th got a free engine room redecoration courtesy of a U.S. destroyer’s five-inch gun — free ventilation. That’s not how you win.
Next, we take a tanker, and now we’ve got two million barrels of free oil. They don’t have any way to come out ahead in the blockade game. They’re wrong if they think they can wait President Trump out.
And if he has to start breaking some more of their stuff to emphasize the point, we have plenty of ways to do that. They have nothing but maybe an opportunity to attack a ship trying to transit the Strait — and they don’t have a lot of time left.
WATTERS: You heard Bessent say these oil wells are going to fill up and they’re going to have to shut production soon. Do you think the president waits and sees how things unfold inside Tehran, or does he need to give them a little nudge?
HANSON: Anything the president blows up right now causes damage for the Iranian people. We can absorb some short-term oil price jumps, and the political pressure at home is not going to change.
President Trump’s calculation is that he can beat them at this game. The fewer things he blows up from here going forward, the better. But they shouldn’t think for a second he will not give them an object lesson in how to make the rubble bounce.
WATTERS: And the United States and Israel have been accumulating so much intelligence over the last two weeks that whatever fighting does break out will end pretty quickly. Is that your understanding?
HANSON: Yeah, we’ve got all of their people identified. If we wanted to, we could take out another layer of their leadership again. But we need somebody to go ahead and quasi-surrender — whatever this ends up being.
If they want to try — I mean, they can’t fight in the normal use of that word. They can cause damage. They can be a terrorist state breaking other people’s things. But they can’t take us on force-on-force.
And if they want to go ahead and let the IRGC take a run at being the heads of a military state as opposed to a theocracy, that will be a very short-lived event.
