Middle East Forum Executive Director Gregg Roman argues that Iran’s absence from renewed negotiations is not a strategic maneuver, but a sign of collapse in leverage. Speaking on Washington Watch, Roman explains that Tehran’s refusal to attend talks reflects a regime with nothing left to offer, as economic pressure and military constraints tighten.
He frames the current moment as one in which time is working against Iran, not the United States, warning that extending ceasefire deadlines only incentivizes further Iranian delay tactics. Roman also suggests that internal instability within the regime — particularly the growing dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — signals a deeper structural crisis that could lead to eventual collapse.
PERKINS: President Trump said U.S. negotiators would be in Pakistan today for another round of talks with Iran, but that looked increasingly unlikely as time passed. So where does all of this stand right now? The back and forth. Joining us now to discuss is Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum.
PERKINS: Previously served as political adviser to Israel’s deputy foreign minister and has worked for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. He joins us from Israel. Gregg, welcome back to Washington Watch. Thanks for staying up late and joining us.
ROMAN: Tony, thanks for having me.
PERKINS: So, Vice President Vance, who has been leading the team of U.S. negotiators, was supposed to be en route to Pakistan, maybe going tomorrow. We don’t know. Give us the latest of what you’re hearing.
ROMAN: My understanding right now is that Iran is considering skipping the talks because it thinks that it’s strong, but it’s the farthest thing from the truth. It’s skipping them because it has nothing left to trade. The empty chair in Islamabad is not a negotiating tactic. It’s a confession. A regime with leverage shows up, extracts concessions. A regime without leverage stays home and issues press releases. That’s what Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and the head negotiator, is doing now. Iran isn’t boycotting diplomacy. Diplomacy is boycotting Tehran. Especially because right now most of the cards are in President Trump’s vest, and I don’t think the Iranians have much to offer. If anything happens, it’ll be because the U.S. reimposes the tight military blockade that it has had in place on the Strait of Hormuz since last week. And even more so, the Iranian economy, which is siphoning off $500 million a day, won’t be able to tolerate it much longer, and they’ll eventually have to talk.
PERKINS: The ceasefire expires this week. If they don’t show up to negotiations, we can’t talk, we can’t find a diplomatic solution. Does this mean that hostilities take over again?
ROMAN: I mean, frankly, if you think about the deadline, it’s only a deadline if you abide by it. And every time that it slides by, it gives the opportunity for Iran to complain, thereby becoming an incentive for them to try and extract more concessions from the United States. The value of Wednesday is that it’s Wednesday. Every clock in this crisis runs against the regime. The only clock running against ourselves as Americans are the ones we wind up ourselves. Extending this ceasefire deals a reward to Iran and gives them an incentive to continue refusing to negotiate. That’s not patience for them. It’s a subsidy for their intransigent behavior. And frankly, President Trump should continue along the path that he chose after the 39th day ended with this war, and he should continue on the path to trying to complete his goals either by right or by might. He might have to choose might on Wednesday.
PERKINS: So you would not be for him — he’s made some suggestions that he might extend the ceasefire for two weeks — you do not think that would be in the favor of the U.S.?
ROMAN: I think that if he is able to extract concessions from the Iranians, perhaps they’re willing to tell us where Americans that were killed by the regime are buried. Perhaps he is willing to find a way in which to get the Pakistanis to have some sort of maneuvers by the Iranians to make progress on the nuclear deal. There has to be some cognizant concession from the Iranians in order for him to extend the deadline, not just empty promises like they’ve been making for the past eight days and frankly the past 47 years.
PERKINS: Are we close to seeing — as you said, they don’t have any cards to play, they’re not showing up because they don’t have anything to offer at home — is this regime in Iran so weakened that if a peace deal is arrived at, that regime is vulnerable internally and we may still see, not immediately but in time, that regime collapse?
ROMAN: What the Iranians are trying — and more specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — is trying to sell to their people and to the rest of the world is that there was a succession put in place with Khamenei passing away, being taken out the first day of the war, and his son Mojtaba taking over. But it wasn’t a succession. It was a hostile takeover in clerical robes. The IRGC did not pick a supreme leader. It picked a hostage with a title that hasn’t been seen since the announcement of his leadership succession. This is the same exact way that took place in 1979. The revolution overthrew the monarchy and just restored one in 2026. Only this time, the crown belongs to the leadership of the IRGC and to the men with the guns. Mojtaba gained a throne, but he lost a hand and he has no idea how to play either. Every Friday prayer now is a referendum on illegitimacy. The regime cannot recover, and if it’s done by force or if it’s done by diplomacy, this is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic as we’ve known it for the past 47 years.
PERKINS: So we’re seeing these statements that are made, but then for instance these agreements — but then we see military action on behalf of Iran. Is that because the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing, or that there is a conflict between who’s running the country?
ROMAN: Frankly, what we’ve seen right now from the Iranians is not this 10-point peace plan that they’ve put forward, but it’s a ransom. They want the victors of this conflict to certify their regional extortion franchise. They want cash. They want tolls on the international waterway. They want the Lebanese front frozen so Hezbollah can reconstitute. The answer to each one of these from the United States has been no. So frankly, every time they have a fit and act out and try to use military force to strengthen their position, it doesn’t allow them to actually move the needle forward to get where they’re trying to go, which is the survival of the regime. You don’t negotiate the terms of your own defeat from the losing side of the table. And the Iranians have not realized this yet. When they do, that’s where you’ll see actual real progress made. And I think a transition of government in Iran that might be peaceful or it might be through civil war, but we’ll only know about that once the conflict on President Trump’s terms is decided.
PERKINS: Gregg Roman, always great to see you. Thanks again for staying up late and joining us on the program. I’m sure we’ll be talking to you in the next several days.
ROMAN: Thank you very much.
