Middle East Forum fellow Rafael Bardaji argues that the United Nations General Assembly has become “pure theater” and that President Trump is unlikely to make a clear-cut decision on Iran even weeks after the midterm elections, with the results, legal battles and Israel’s own elections all competing for attention. Bardaji contends the midterms will not change much in Trump’s ability to pursue his Iran policy.
Bardaji warns that the West’s greatest vulnerability is internal, pointing to a “silent alliance, but effective” between the Western left and Muslim forces in the West, seen in New York and Berlin, and says many European countries are failing states disconnected from their citizens. He adds that Iran lacks the ability to rebuild its nuclear machinery quickly, that China is more pragmatic toward Tehran than often assumed, and that Western energy shortages stem partly from abandoning traditional energy for a green transition, not only from the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints.
HESSEN: Shalom from Jerusalem, I’m Jonathan Hessen and this is TV7’s Editor’s Note and today’s edition will focus on the latest developments from the geostrategic level. We’ll try to peel those layers down to both regional rivalries existing here in the Middle East, the implications that may arise from the latest developments also pertaining to the Islamic Republic of Iran. We’ll discuss the the immediate threats also to the State of Israel, but also from a broader perspective to Western civilization at large, the United States, Europe. Before all that, I’m delighted to introduce my friend, colleague, longtime mentor Dr. Rafael Bardaji, who is Spain’s former National Security Advisor. Currently, he’s the Chief Executive Officer of Worldwide Strategy among a long list of other positions, but we’ll stop right there. It’s great to have you, Rafael.
BARDAJI: Thank you for having me, Jonathan.
HESSEN: So let’s delve right into the current state of play. This past week we had the United Nations General Assembly during the course of which we had a lot of world leaders speaking, mostly to their domestic audiences, but the cherry on top is usually the leader of the so-called free world, namely the President of the United States, Donald Trump, in this instance. What what went through your mind after listening to what he had to say and particularly also about the the necessity to come to a very decisive decision after the midterm elections, with emphasis on that, which are scheduled for November 3rd just, you know, a little more than 1 month from now. And the decision has to do with how to proceed with the the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran: either Iran strikes a deal that it’s not going to like, or else face the consequences.
BARDAJI: Well, first of all, let me say, Jonathan, that the United Nations has become just a pure theatrical place. So, you don’t have to believe anything that is said, and actually I would recommend to anyone not to pay much attention to what is in said in the General Assembly, because it’s just pure propaganda for domestic or for leadership personal gains and nothing good for the world. Having said that, the speech by the most important person in the world today, which is probably President Donald Trump was, again, in his latest mood, no? Offering possibilities for a diplomatic path ahead and a deal, or threatening with unleashing hell against Iran regime, no? Which path he will finally take? We don’t know. It will depend on the circumstances. It will depend how the Iranians react. But, up to now, we haven’t seen any major breakthrough in in any in any field, not the diplomatic, not the military. And I think, at some point, President Donald Trump will have to decide whether to declare a victory without having that or to reopen offensive operations and go back to the to the campaign, no, and and see if that finally may reduce the ability of the regime to to play around. But, again, we have the midterm elections, which is going to be also a complication, because after the result, we will see what happens in the United States of America, how acceptable are the results, what will be the legal battles, and that is also taking the attention and the energy of the President of the United States. So, I wouldn’t say that we’re going to see any major decision or clear-cut decision, even days or weeks after the midterm elections, no? We have also the Israeli elections as well, which could complicate the the full agenda and the global panorama, the regional one, of course. And, finally, we have a potential escalation threatening the war between Russia and Ukraine, no, which we are seeing now being Ukraine on the offensive in the long-range systems and deep into Russian space. We see Putin less and less able to change the dynamics in the battlefield, and we see the Europeans being threatened by some kind of hybrid actions, but unprepared to to impose any any of their interests in their in their agenda either. So, it’s a it’s a very complicated situation. So, I’m pessimistic that we are going to see any resolution of any conflict in any place anytime soon, I’m afraid.
HESSEN: Before we touch on on the the geostrategic issues that you just referred to, since obviously there’s the, you know, the past week that the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, the President of China, and the implications for geostrategic power competition, analysts had it pretty much right that there’s not some substantial breakthrough expected out of those talks. But, for a moment, I’d like to touch on the the elections. I’ve been asked a lot about the elections here in Israel. What do I expect to see? I don’t think that anybody knows. There is a sense amongst the majority of of peoples that are in the the so-called conservative, right-of-center camp that they do not feel comfortable necessarily voting currently for Prime Minister Netanyahu and this coalition as is due to the the situation vis-a-vis, you know, the they are responsible for October 7th, and that’s how they see it. But, nonetheless, they also have a hard time voting for the so-called opposition in light of the fact that there are elements with this opposition that are so extremely left that do not necessarily align with their national convictions and and ideological convictions at that, and therefore there is going to be here a a very interesting election period up to the 27th of October here in Israel, when the election polling will be held, where nobody really knows where it’s going. Some say, you know, that Netanyahu does have the upper hand and has a very slim majority. Others say that this election will end in stalemate and we’ll see a transitional government, as was the case also a couple of rounds ago, back in 2019 and onward, where we’ll see a sequence of elections because no side has a viable majority. And just to put things into perspective, there has never been a majority government in Israel since its inception, so obviously that is something to take into account. Another angle is the midterm elections. And obviously there’re going to be consequences in the United States, in Israel, in light of the anticipated change of control over the House according to the polls. I’m not sure anybody can guarantee that there’s going to be such a major change. But some are even speaking about a change in the Senate. And according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been for many years, I think it’s 17 years, in in Congress, he doesn’t think that this is going to impact the the executive powers of President Trump to prosecute the national security interests of the United States vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic of Iran, China, Russia, or any other threat looming on the horizon. So looking at those two angles, if you could give your your perspectives, I’d much appreciate it.
BARDAJI: Well, let me start with the American midterm elections, because they’re probably the simplest. I do believe that, given the style and the vision and the goals of President Trump, and how he has been conducting his agenda, domestic and foreign, in the last 2 years and previously in in the first term, I don’t think he cares much about who holds the Senate and the and the and on the and the lower house, the House of Representatives. He can I I agree with Marco Rubio on that. He can pursue his policy even without the support of the of the Congress. I know it would for some people will say, well, that opens up a constitutional crisis. It could, depending how the Democrats react. But you also had to bear in mind how lunatics part of the Democratic Party has become, no? All the streams and and and all this left anti-Semitism members of the party members of the party who are running or who may get elected, and which is also splitting the party, no? So, I’m not sure that it will affect much, sincerely. On the contrary, I think on the Israeli elections, any change of Prime Minister will have some kind of reverberations. Uh it is true, as you mentioned, that people are blaming the Prime Minister for October the 7th, though I always argue that that not esse- essentially the truth, in the sense that October the 7th was was a national systemic uh failure from top to down, no? It was from the political side, not only the Prime Minister at the time, but previous governments, it was on the intelligence side, it was on the IDF preparation side, and it was on social responsibility side that were, you know, feasting in festivals, and uh living the life like no enemy uh could hurt Israel anymore, no? I think it was just a kind of national blindness. Everyone has part of responsibility, but not everyone has to be singled out as a responsible. I think it very shared, no? Having said that, I also very conscious that uh political cycles, independently of how good or bad a Prime Minister uh plays a role in elections, no? And the the prime the current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been the longest Prime Minister serving in Israel history, no? At some point, he may have to get out of his his position, no? Uh so for me, it’s not uh how long he he will stay in power, but how he will leave, uh which uh heritage he will he will leave to the Israelis and the and and Israel as a nation and as Jewish state, no? And uh, and if we look carefully, sincerely, and we compare Israel today with the last uh five years, I think uh Israel is in a much better position uh today on the security realm for of for sure, but it’s also obviously suffering this uh wild wave of antisemitism anywhere in the world, no? Uh that but it’s not the Prime Minister to be blamed also for this, no? I think uh Israel has never been able or wise enough to put a strategy to challenge antisemitism in the world, despite the billions spent over decades, no, of fighting antisemitism. So I think uh that will require a new a new reflection in the country, whoever is in the Prime Minister office, and uh and I wish well anyone who who may replace Bibi Netanyahu if he is replaced, because as you said,
HESSEN: It’s a tough
BARDAJI: uh
HESSEN: tough job.
BARDAJI: it’s a matter it’s a matter of uh being able to form a coalition, no? So, he may not win, and then he may be the only one able to form a coalition, no? Who knows?
HESSEN: There’s a saying here in Israel, uh, put one uh Israeli or Jew in in a room and you get seven opinions. Um, having 120 of them, that’s a lot of opinion, at least, exactly. Um, to be had and to be discussed. But, uh let let’s uh, um, broaden one moment because the they’re going to be implications from those elections, but there are also elections with severe consequences to the global rules-based order, uh to say it mildly, with the the most radical left-wing party taking over uh a decisive victory in Berlin, while the AfD, the Alternative for Deutschland, being uh the the right-wing party in in Germany, um they are sweeping one country, one state after another in the federal system, and it seems like that Germany is going to have a very dramatic change, um if things don’t uh somehow, you know, uh if there is no intervention in in the current state of play. Uh, and the same in France. I mean the chances that Marine Le Pen or her number two are going to win the presidential elections there are growing by the day. Obviously, the federal system there has barred uh her party from from winning also the municipalities all over the country in light of uh the the uh numbers or the weight granted to Paris uh in the last election, but uh Europe is is going to see some very radical shifts in the next couple of years that are also going to have uh a shattering consequences to many of the conceptions of the current ruling elites.
BARDAJI: Yes, it’s a an irony, but it’s a dramatic one to see a mayor of Berlin elected which is Turkish and communist at the same time, no? Uh, the city that was split by communism between the thir- tyranny of the left and the free world of the West is now going back in history and having a communist on top of the City Hall, no? For me, it’s a sad feeling. But we have seen that also in New York, so there is nothing new. There is a part of our society which hate us as much as our enemies hate us as well. And this is the weakest vulnerabili- the point and the the highest vulnerability Western society has at this very moment, no? It’s the internal enemies that we are living with, no, unfortunately. Uh, there is also this growing, and we’ve seen that in New York and Berlin, this growing silent alliance, but effective, between the the conventional uh left in the Western world and the Muslim uh forces uh living in the the Western world as well, no? Uh, some of them paid by countries from the Gulf, but others just because they they they are, you know, living here in Europe and in America, and they have enough means and resources to do whatever they want, no? So, it’s this is a very complicated and very sad moment, uh very consequential, I think. And does it’s not surprising why the the the the right and the extreme right and the alternative right, whatever you want to call it, is rising. Uh, I don’t think I’m exaggerating if I say that many European countries are failed states, or are failing states, because there is such a disconnect between our elites and the people, and the needs of the people, that people are disenchanted with uh the current leadership, and they have to find alternatives. Yes, it’s easier from the extreme to promise everything, uh like Mamdani did in New York, no, free free transportation that never happened yet, uh, but uh somebody has to give some alternatives, for real, no? We have a problem of immigration in Europe, uh we have a problem of uh Muslims, radical Muslims growing up and being more assertive, we have a housing problem which is common everywhere, including Israel, um and we have an economy which is failing to guarantee our social contract of the welfare state, no? So, we don’t have energy, we have a an inflation which is uh taking all of uh of family economies, so we have real problems, and uh but the governments are spending our money in uh promoting crops of uh with uh kind of uh uh diversity philosophy in Colombia or in Nigeria, I don’t care. But, you know, this kind of woke approach, which is spending billions of our money that could be spent in maintaining our services, our infrastructure, our health, our education, and they are not going there, no? So, that’s the explanation I have for this uh extreme polarization and the growing of the radical alternatives, left and right, no? Uh, I hope that the left will not take the upper hands in the in the coming national elections in France or other countries, uh, but, you know, they are forces that have to be fought uh and uh and uh and the and the right, centrists or more radical, has to organize themselves in order to avoid a very black future for Europe, no? But, you know, France is uh in uh in bankruptcy uh in in practice, the economy is failing miserably, uh Chancellor Merz is uh evaporating and diluting, and uh with no clear options for the near future, the British are gone, uh independently of whether they want to revive the special relationship with the United States, I think that’s a mirage, that’s it’s not possible with uh the current Labor leadership, Spain is in the hands of a communist bunch of corrupt people, and Italy is not enough uh as a country to redress the situation in Europe, no? Uh, so, yes, we need to be worried about our future, but uh let’s have some hope.
HESSEN: Hope and relentless prayers for for change. You know, uh those communists tend to to lie their way into setting up barriers, and they will lie their way into power, but they will make those changes
BARDAJI: Yeah, you know, Jonathan, the the the the left is the the the new left, or the left we are living with today is basically founded in one single feeling, which is envy. They’re envy of the prosperity of the rich people, they’re envy of the prosperity of the innovators, they’re envy of the people working on high tech, or trying to go to Mars, they’re envy of everyone that they are not there. everyone that they are not there. So, and this envy is translated very easily and very rapidly into hatred, hatred of all of them, that all of the people who are not there, no? And they are building walls, not physically, but psychological and politically. And and and so is not just a matter of management of a few years in power. It’s a matter of transformation of our culture, our civility, and our basic values, no? And that’s I think we need to fight back as much as we can, no?
HESSEN: And and their enemy is the church, their enemy is
BARDAJI: The family.
HESSEN: anything that wants to preserve the values and moral compass of Western civilization that is founded upon the Judeo-Christian value system and faith. And, and unfortunately we don’t have very much time to discuss this matter and exhaust all the angles to it, because I do believe that this this is a cornerstone for whether or not Western civilization will succeed in the face of the adversity that that is just around the corner, unfortunately. And within that context, Russia and China are looking, and they’re observing very keenly at what is happening. And Iran is looking. Iran timed those attacks wrongly. If it would have happened in a couple of years and it had more strategic prudence, who knows what type of government would be in the United States that would even support its endeavors? I mean, I I’m saying this with a lot of of alarm and very carefully, because people need to understand that the threats emerging today are real. And unless good people step up and stand tall in the face of those really, really dangerous individuals spouting ideologies of evil and hate, the the West will will cease to exist. I mean, Rafael, your country has been under occupation for more than 800 years by Islamist forces.
BARDAJI: And unfortunately we are we have now parts, a city which is under an invasion again, a few weeks. But, yeah. Unfortunately, you know, we we are in a time where you are invaded and you have to fight back your invasion forces government. In the case of Spain, we have to fight also our own government. So, we are in a situation which is a kind of surreal if it was not dramatic, no? Uh the whole world is upside down, I’m afraid, no? And that’s why having a a moral compass nowadays, it’s much more important and relevant that in any time past uh that we had in the in the recent decades, no? Uh I think we need to recover uh the clarity between as you said good and evil, uh the good and bad, and that there are things that cannot lines that cannot be crossed and things that cannot be done, no? Uh period, because are bad.
HESSEN: In 2 and 1/2 minutes that are left, unfortunately we didn’t touch on on much of the geostategic landscape, but give us a sense of how this, what we just discussed at length, is impacting the drive of China and Russia to advance their own strategic interests. And and they seek to impose a multipolar world at the expense of the United States, of Europe, of Israel.
BARDAJI: Yeah, well I think China is is is is the only one able to to modify the rules and the bases and the pillars of our world, no? Russia basically has become an appendix of China. Yes, it’s independent, but it’s so dependent at at at for many reasons, strategic, political, and military, and industrial, and trade to China, that is for me has no power as an independent middle or big power, whatever you want to to call it today, no? But China, yes. And we have seen that uh the last days on the uh artificial intelligence debate, no? Paradoxically, American companies calling for regulation, which is something against their nature, and uh and uh Xi Jinping trying to advance as much as can as he can uh as a country into the realm of the future abilities of uh artificial intelligence. And I think this is going to change and impact dramatically how the political relations are in the near future, no? I think we are we are in a kind of uh high-tech competition with a lot of extensions and ramifications and tentacles in many other places and fields. So, we need to be watching carefully what’s happening that in that level.
HESSEN: And vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic of Iran, obviously Russia is very keen on this war continuing. Um it’s helping it fuel its own war machine considering the the the the gas prices and the oil prices that are benefiting its its coffers, its uh treasury. But uh looking at it from a Chinese perspective, there are implications to it, but it is working to bypass those complications and to help the the Ayatollah regime survive for the sake of advancing its own interests. This is not out of goodwill. This is a war against the West.
BARDAJI: Yeah.
HESSEN: Yeah.
BARDAJI: Exactly. Though I have to say that the Chinese probably are more pragmatic in vis-a-vis Iran that we tend to think. But again, look at Iran. Uh as much as we can say they have the same ambition as in the past, they don’t have the ability to rebuild uh the machinery to accomplish their ambition. So, it will take a lot of time. And as we know, Israel is able to to undermine any effort in that sense in the future as he did in the past. So, I’m less concerned with that, no? Uh the the Hormuz Strait and now the Houthis and the Bab el-Mandeb, yes, are complicating the energy for for quite some time, uh but there will be alternatives. And actually we have to remind the people that if in Europe and in America we are suffering shortage of uh diesel, it’s not because of the choke points, it’s also because we uh left abandon our ener- energy sector decades ago and we transition to the green uh energy uh economy, no? So, it’s our fault as well that we are having shortage of energy in Europe and in America. And that could be solved easily promoting nuclear energy, going back to coal, whatever, as in the past. So, I think there are alternatives.
HESSEN: Well, uh the silver lining of this uh very bleak conversation is God is still in control. Other than that, uh there are some people who are uh still fighting and and trying to make a difference. And I I appreciate you, Dr. Bardaji. You’re definitely one of those. Uh so, thank you for all of your valuable insights today.
BARDAJI: Thank you for having me, Jonathan, once again.
HESSEN: I’d like to thank all of you at home as well and to wish you a uh happy feast as uh celebrations are currently taking place uh here in Israel, Chag Sukkot Sameach, uh the Feast of Tabernacles. From here in Jerusalem, until our next edition, Shalom.
