Economy
The Central Bank Can Raise Rates, but Cannot Produce Cheap Energy, Calm the Persian Gulf, or Fully Repair Public Trust
A 20-Year Foreign-Income Tax Exemption Could Deepen Turkey’s Exposure to Money Laundering, Sanctions Evasion, and Organized Crime
Iranian Authorities Continue to Project Defiance but the Economy Appears to Have Limited Remaining Resilience
Every Month, Iran Needs to Import Around $1.3 Billion of Essential Commodities
The Problem Trump Will Face in Isolating Iran and Preventing Trade in Fuel and Weapons Will Not Be in the Persian Gulf, but Rather the Caspian Sea
U.S. Desperation to Stabilize the Global Economy and the Ceasefire Increased Iran’s Stockpile of Will
The Iranian News Media Have Not Fully Reported the Reverberation of the War on the Iranian Economy
Turkey Imports 90 Percent of Its Energy, Making It One of the Most Exposed Economies Among Major Emerging Markets
The Media Is Obsessing over Price Volatility in the Oil Markets as Iran Fans the Flames of Panic
Erdoğan May Conclude That He Needs to Follow Khamenei’s Lead and Slaughter Tens of Thousands of Dissatisfied Turks
The Government Effectively Has Been Bankrupt for Years, Running Annual Deficits of Roughly One-Third of Its Budget
A Fragmented Labor Force, Strict Security, and Other Factors Constrain Workers from Mobilizing, Not Apathy or Ignorance
Iran Needs a Leader Who Not Only Curtails Corruption but Also Challenges the Iranian Society’s Fantasies About Itself
Syria and Venezuela Pledged to Repay Their Debts for Oil and Gas That Iran Exported to Them, but Have Not
Widespread, Economically-Driven Unrest Has Engulfed at Least a Dozen Major Cities, but So Far Lacks Organization to Overthrow the Regime
The Government Cut Projected Oil Export Revenues by 63 Percent and Will Transfer Most Exports Directly to the Revolutionary Guard
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Is Likely to Resist the Creation of a New Ministry That Could Encroach on Its Influence
Iranian Dissidents Have Voiced Optimism That Sustained External Pressure and Growing Public Discontent Might Bring Political Change
Economic and Military Pressure Is Increasingly Pushing the Country Toward Serious Internal Upheaval, Which Is Necessary for Change
A Former Tehran Stock Exchange Official Recently Warned of a Potential Surge in Iran’s Inflation to as High as 3,000 Percent