After the failure to hold a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington, Iranian decision-makers find themselves under economic, military, and political siege and are concerned about the stability of the weakened regime.
On April 26, 2026, the Telegram channel, speaking on behalf of the invisible new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued the following message: “Salam people of Iran. The enemy is seeking to strike at the sources of the nation’s strength—both on the battlefield and in the streets—to break this sacred unity. We must remain vigilant. Efforts are underway to exaggerate the naval blockade, activate ethnic, religious, and political divisions, fuel economic discontent, and sow doubt and discord about the country’s achievements.”
The U.S. naval blockade is driving already inflated consumer prices to new heights.
Mojtaba has not been seen or directly heard from since his father’s compound was bombed on February 28, 2026. Rumors abound that he is injured or dead, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is speaking on his behalf.
After President Donald Trump’s described disunity in Tehran, the regime’s remaining top leaders issued similar social media messages rebutting Trump. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, rejected Trump’s claim of divisions within the ranks of Islamic Republic officials, insisting there is no moderate-hardliner split and emphasizing unity and full loyalty to the supreme leader—a message quickly echoed by other officials. Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said on April 26 that Iran’s “national unity” and “single voice” have frustrated the enemy, which he accused of trying to achieve through division what it failed to secure through war and negotiations.
Different officials have also praised the nightly presence of regime supporters in rallies as a sign of popular support for the regime, though the military and intelligence organs likely organized these. Meanwhile, the U.S. naval blockade is driving already inflated consumer prices to new heights.
The danger of food hyperinflation led the government to announce that it subsidize essential items such as medicine and wheat. The plan is to offer extremely cheap dollars to importers of these items, who are mostly regime insiders, in order to keep retail prices low. The dollar rate offered is more than five times less than the exchange rate in the market. However, this means a quick outflow of government’s hard currency reserves at a time when continued oil exports and payments remain uncertain.
Trump claims to have received a better offer from Tehran after canceling his negotiating team’s trip to Islamabad.
Every month, Iran needs to import around $1.3 billion of essential commodities in a situation where Iranian ports are blockaded. Although the United States has said that it would allow food and medicine to get through, the cost of shipping has climbed. International financial transactions have become hard for Tehran, as the U.S. and traditional trade brokers in the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere clamp down on Iran-related funds.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Oman on April 26 amid Iran’s regional isolation following its missile and drone attacks against all Gulf Arab countries—whether friends or silent foes. Some perceived the visit as an attempt to negotiate the release of funds Oman holds as trustee. These are debts to Iran paid by Iraq and other funds restricted by the United States. Other unofficial reports claimed that Araghchi wanted to conduct a regional tour to mend relations, but other Arab states rejected the initiative.
Araghchi’s trip comes as Trump claims to have received a better offer from Tehran after canceling his negotiating team’s trip to Islamabad. The U.S. president has made many similar statements in past, sometimes based on claims by Pakistani mediators, or possibly through other channels. Tehran, however, has sent no new public signals regarding ending its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or a willingness to standdown on the nuclear issue.
