Tehran Seeks an ‘Engineered Victory’ Through Force and Talks

Iran’s Negotiator Suggests That the Regime Is Simultaneously Pursuing Negotiations and Calibrated Military Escalation

Ballistic missiles take off with an Iranian flag in the background.

Ballistic missiles take off with an Iranian flag in the background.

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In a June 8, 2026, message, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, argued that the purpose of the talks is not normalization with the United States but ending the war and establishing a new security arrangement. Significantly, he did not present diplomacy as an alternative to confrontation. Instead, Ghalibaf described Tehran’s approach as a combination of military action and diplomacy, suggesting that negotiations and calibrated escalation are being pursued simultaneously.

Tensions escalated again after a U.S. Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz on June 9.

The message came amid the recent military escalation. On June 7, Iran launched ballistic missiles toward northern Israel in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, prompting Israeli attacks on military targets inside Iran. Although direct exchanges largely paused the following day, tensions escalated again after a U.S. Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz on June 9. President Donald Trump accused Iran of shooting down the aircraft, although Tehran denied responsibility. The United States subsequently struck Iranian radar and air-defense sites along the Persian Gulf coast. On June 10, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks against U.S.-linked military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking the most serious direct military exchange between Tehran and Washington since a ceasefire took effect.

In a voice-recording cited by local media, Ghalibaf explicitly linked military action to the diplomatic process. Referring to recent operations in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s missile strikes against Israel, he argued that successful negotiations require a proper understanding of the “geometry of the battlefield.” Ghalibaf said diplomacy confined to closed-door talks and diplomatic smiles would fail from the outset, and that military operations alone could not secure all of Iran’s rights.

The remarks imply that Iran views military pressure—including recent missile attacks and regional threats—not as a departure from diplomacy but as a tool for strengthening its leverage at the negotiating table and shaping the terms of any eventual settlement. This follows warnings by many Iran-watchers that Trump’s apparent reluctance to use force to seal a more decisive military victory since mid-April, emphasizing negotiations instead, have convinced Tehran that military escalation could be useful in forcing Washington to make more concessions.

Nour News, which is affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, interpreted Ghalibaf’s remarks as a blueprint for combining force and diplomacy. The outlet described military action as a “power-generating engine” that deters adversaries from contemplating further attacks, and portrayed diplomacy as the mechanism for converting battlefield gains into political, legal, and economic achievements. If this interpretation is correct, Tehran’s objective is neither compromise nor perpetual confrontation but what the article called an “engineered victory” achieved through a combination of military pressure and strategic negotiation.

This may be a troubling realization for Tehran: The costs imposed on its adversaries so far have been lower than the costs imposed on Iran itself.

Ghalibaf did not mention the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, but its impact is difficult to ignore. After two months of restrictions on oil exports, Tehran faces mounting financial pressure and a worsening shortage of hard currency. Its partial disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to higher global energy prices, but the economic shock so far has remained within levels that major economies have absorbed without serious turmoil. Oil prices are significantly above pre-war levels, yet they have not risen enough to force Washington to accept Tehran’s demands. This may be a troubling realization for Tehran: The costs imposed on its adversaries so far have been lower than the costs imposed on Iran itself. Ghalibaf referred to what he described as the enemy’s plan for “weakening the people’s resilience and inducing miscalculations among officials”—an apparent acknowledgment of the worsening economic situation.

Tehran appears to be betting that limited military escalation can compel Washington to accept a temporary agreement that reduces economic and military pressure without forcing the Islamic Republic to surrender its core strategic assets—namely, its nuclear program, ballistic missile arsenal, and regional proxy infrastructure.

Mardo Soghom was a journalist and editorial manager at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty for three decades, overseeing the Iran and Afghanistan services until 2020, and was chief editor of the Iran International English website.
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