In an April 30, 2026, public message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained out of view for two months, the supposed Iranian supreme leader presented the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz as central to Iran’s identity and strategic power, cast the United States as the main source of regional instability, and signaled Tehran’s intent to assert tighter control over the vital waterway, arguing that such a move would secure the region and usher in a new order free of foreign presence.
“The blockade scenario will fail, and Iran will never lose the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Islamic Iran, by giving practical thanks for the blessing of exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz, will secure the Persian Gulf region and put an end to the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway,” the message said. This is a direct challenge to the United States that launched an air campaign with Israel against the Islamic Republic two months ago but has been unable to secure free commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
As the United States enforces a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the Islamic Republic has maintained its closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the critical gateway linking the Persian Gulf to global markets—effectively disrupting the flow of more than 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Now, Iran openly says that Hormuz is its main leverage against further attacks and uses it in negotiations with Washington to end the conflict.
Other officials in Tehran began echoing the message issued in Khamenei’s name. Mohsen Rezaei, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and a permanent fixture of the regime, posted on X: “The blockade scenario will fail, and Iran will never lose the Strait of Hormuz. History will record that the Iranian people defeated the American superpower in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Both the battlefield and diplomacy are advancing in coordination with the Leader and with the support of the mobilized people.”
Former Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, speaking to Tasnim network affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, issued a military warning, saying that if war resumes, Bahrain can expect a harsh response: “We will do something that will make it forget even its own name!”
The U.S. blockade has taken a heavy toll on Iran’s economy, particularly its oil exports.
The Islamic Republic launched hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones at its Arab neighbors during the U.S. and Israeli air campaign in March and April, targeting even friendly Oman and Qatar. Tehran holds a grudge against Bahrain, which centuries ago was part of Iran and has Sunni leadership but a large Shi’ite population. Bahrain is a close U.S. ally that hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet.
The U.S. blockade has taken a heavy toll on Iran’s economy, particularly its oil exports. To avoid shutting down production, which risks causing lasting damage to reservoirs, Tehran is stockpiling crude both onshore and aboard idle tankers. How long this can continue remains uncertain; available storage capacity will largely determine Iran’s staying power in this war of blockades. The broader economic strain is severe: Tens of thousands of workers are losing their jobs, and food and other consumer prices continue to surge.
The standoff ultimately comes down to a single question: Who blinks first? Iran must weigh how long its strained economy can endure the pressure of a U.S. blockade squeezing its oil lifeline and vital imports, while President Donald Trump faces mounting political and economic pressure from surging oil prices and deepening global uncertainty.
