The International Energy Agency says Qatar will record the world’s fastest growth in natural gas exports over the next decade and, alongside the United States, will dominate most of the emerging global gas markets. The assessment is not so positive for Iran. According to the agency’s assessment, Iran exported around 15 billion cubic meters of gas last year, but in the decade ahead, it will have no surplus left for export.
In its World Energy Outlook 2025 report, the International Energy Agency forecasts that Qatar’s annual gas production will surge from 170 billion cubic meters today to 300 billion cubic meters by 2035, while its gas exports will increase 2.5 times from current levels.
If Iran’s gas exports cease, it would lose roughly $4-5 billion in annual government revenue.
The expansion in Qatar’s gas production and exports stems from the North Field, which it shares with Iran, which calls its side South Pars. In recent years, Qatar has signed $39 billion in contracts with major international energy companies to develop the North Field and expand its natural gas liquefaction capacity; the figure is expected to increase to $50 billion in coming years.
While Iran seeks gas imports from Russia and Turkmenistan to cover its domestic shortfall, Qatar—benefiting from the same shared field—competes with the United States for control of global gas markets and is poised to reclaim its title as the world’s largest liquified natural gas exporter.
Iran has only two gas export contracts: The first is a twenty-year deal to supply 10 billion cubic meters per year to Turkey, which expires in mid-2026. Despite Tehran’s repeated requests, Ankara has not agreed to extend it. Iran also has a contract to export 25 billion cubic meters per year to Iraq, of which Iran can deliver only one-third due to shortages at home.
Because of growing domestic gas deficits, Iran exported just 15 billion cubic meters of gas to Iraq and Turkey combined last year. Frustrated by Iran’s failure to meet its commitments—and under U.S. pressure—Baghdad is seeking alternate suppliers like Turkmenistan and Qatar, and has signed deals to boost its own gas production. If Iran’s gas exports cease, it would lose roughly $4-5 billion in annual government revenue.
The Iranian sector of South Pars entered the second half of its lifespan last year, with production and pressure already in decline. To sustain output, Iran would need to invest at least $40 billion in pressure-boosting facilities, including installation of massive 20,000-ton platforms, fifteen times larger than its current ones, and giant compressors. However, the country lacks both the financial resources and the technological capability, and neither Russia nor China can supply the required technology. South Pars accounts for 75 percent of Iran’s total gas production.
While Iran struggles with declining output, Qatar has installed pressure-boosting systems in the North Field with the help of Western energy giants, and since 2023 has embarked on a new expansion phase. The shared field—the world’s largest gas reservoir, holding around 50 trillion cubic meters of reserves—lies two-thirds in Qatari waters and one-third in Iranian waters.
Qatar currently exports 77 million tons of liquified natural gas annually (equivalent to about 110 billion cubic meters of natural gas) and plans to raise this to 126 million tons in 2027, reaching 142 million tons (around 190 billion cubic meters) by 2030.
Iran, by contrast, has failed to advance its gas field development projects in recent years. Despite possessing 33 trillion cubic meters, the second-largest gas reserves in the world after Russia, the country faces shortages year-round, with winter deficits reaching 250 million cubic meters per day. Iranian officials have warned that if gas field development projects remain stalled, the country’s gas deficit could triple within the next decade.
Iranian officials have warned that if gas field development projects remain stalled, the country’s gas deficit could triple within the next decade.
The International Energy Agency also says Russia’s gas production and exports are unlikely to grow by 2035. Before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the European Union imported 150 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually, accounting for 40 percent of Russia’s exports. By last year, that figure had dropped to 52 billion cubic meters, and is expected to reach zero by the end of 2026.
Although Russia has increased gas exports to China in recent years, the volume remains far below what it needs to offset the loss of the European market. The International Energy Agency projects Russia’s gas production will stay at around 680 billion cubic meters through 2035, with its total natural gas and liquified natural gas exports hovering near 160 billion cubic meters annually.
In contrast to Iran’s retreat and Russia’s stagnation, the United States and Qatar are expanding their liquified natural gas export infrastructure to capture global demand. According to the International Energy Agency, there is now 300 billion cubic meters of new annual liquified natural gas export capacity scheduled to start operation by 2030, a 50 percent increase in available global liquified natural gas supply. Around half is being built in the United States, and 20 percent in Qatar. Looking ahead to 2035, the International Energy Agency says Qatar leads the way within the region, increasing output from 170 billion cubic meters in 2024 to over 300 billion cubic meters in 2035. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s gas production is expected to double over the next decade, reaching 150 billion cubic meters annually—but this expansion will be used entirely for domestic consumption, mainly to replace oil in power generation.
Too often, diplomats design policy based on present conditions, but shifts in gas production suggest rapid changes in the Middle East. Qatar is poised to get richer and increase its influence, a controversial prospect in Washington given questions over Qatar’s agenda. The fall in Iran’s gas production, meanwhile, suggests that even if the regime changes in Iran, the new regime will be hard-pressed to fund the country’s reconstruction or rapidly stabilize its economy.
