Amidst cautious optimism about reviving Syria’s economy, the country this month hosted two delegations from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to discuss support for its reconstruction.
On the eve of the first anniversary of Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Syria’s economic indicators under new President Ahmed al-Sharaa are showing signs of improvement. The World Bank, echoing the International Monetary Fund, states: “The annual Consumer Price Index, which averaged 54.4 percent from 2011 to 2024, is expected to ease to below 20 percent in 2025, while the 53 percent contraction of GDP during the same period is expected to reverse to 1 percent growth.”
The civil war destroyed vast parts of the country, its infrastructure and industrial capacity.
These figures are based on constant prices. Otherwise in nominal terms, gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars contracted from $67.5 billion in 2011 to an estimated $21.4 billion in 2024. Thus, at current dollar prices, Syria’s economy is now worth less than one-third of what it was in 2011 and even the mentioned modest improvement remains far below the country’s pre–civil war capacity in 2010. The civil war destroyed vast parts of the country, its infrastructure and industrial capacity. Per capita income has dropped to roughly one-third of its previous level, and according to World Bank assessments, extreme poverty now affects one in four Syrians, while two-thirds live below the lower-middle-income line.
The country’s foreign exchange reserves are now near zero, and government revenues—excluding the impact of inflation—have fallen to one-fifth of their 2010 level. Syria’s remaining hopes lie with international institutions, wealthy Western and Arab countries, and regional partners such as Turkey. Recent frequent meetings between Syrian economic and energy officials and their counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reflect this reliance.
Saudi Arabia donated 1.65 million barrels of oil to Syria in November 2025. On November 27, Syria’s energy minister announced plans to construct a refinery with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day. The announcement came two days after Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir met with a delegation from the United Arab Emirates’ Crescent Petroleum, a company involved in developing gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan and southern Iraq—regions adjacent to Syria.
Taken together with the lifting of Western sanctions against Syria, these developments offer a positive outlook. Yet they provide no guarantee of real economic recovery, self-sufficiency, or—most critically—political independence. Syria risks becoming a second Lebanon: a country dependent on continuous foreign aid and trapped in a rentier economy. Lebanon is a cautionary example: One-third of its gross domestic product comes from remittances, a significant portion of government revenues depends on foreign aid, and a third of the economy operates underground. In simple terms, Lebanon resembles a “charity economy” more than a productive economic system—where financial assistance inevitably carries hidden political conditions.
Reconstruction costs of damaged physical assets are projected to range between $140 billion and $345 billion.
Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated that it will not abandon its regional influence campaigns and continues to foment instability in neighboring states—especially in Syria, which for decades served as the “backbone” of Iran’s proxy network against Israel. Recent examples include Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s prediction of a “Syrian youth uprising” against the transitional government, and the recent verbal clashes between Lebanese and Iranian officials.
Numerous reports indicate ongoing Iranian efforts to revive Hezbollah in Lebanon and other regional proxy groups. The risk extends to Syria’s doorstep, particularly given that Iran-backed militias in neighboring Iraq remain active and, following the November 11, 2025, parliamentary elections, are exerting influence over the formation of Iraq’s next government.
Al-Sharaa said in late October that Syria had opened to global investment, securing $28 billion in the first six months. However, it is unclear how much of this figure will materialize in practice, or how quickly these financial flows will be integrated into Syria’s economy—especially given that reconstruction costs of damaged physical assets are projected to range between $140 billion and $345 billion, with a conservative best estimate of $216 billion, according to World Bank estimates. Add to this the external threats and a lack of basic national consensus, and the investor confidence necessary for infrastructure reconstruction is anything but a sure thing.
