Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy for the Middle East?

The Trump administration seeks to implement a grand strategy for the Middle East that encompasses much more than just a peace plan for Gaza. President Donald Trump reflected this by putting Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar on the itinerary for his first overseas trip of his second term. This has continued as Trump added Egypt and Turkey to his coalition in the push for a ceasefire in Gaza and more.

Vice President JD Vance said as much in an October 21, 2025, press conference after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Can his grand strategy work? There have been previous efforts at peace, with some limited successes, including the 1978 Camp David Accords, the 1993 Oslo Accords, and the Abraham Accords during the first Trump administration. The current effort envisions a much broader framework based on expanding the Abraham Accords, growing trade relations, and creating joint security arrangements.

Trump puts trade first. During his initial trip through the Gulf Cooperation Council states, Trump made a number of deals, bringing in more than $2 trillion in Gulf Arab investment in the United States.

These deals formed a foundation to build a larger coalition to support the Twenty-Point Peace Plan. Eight Muslim majority countries endorsed the plan, and a dozen other countries offered support or expressed interest in participating. Israel and the Palestinians agreed to terms and Hamas released living Israeli hostages.

The remaining Hamas terrorists now seek to reassert their reign of terror in Gaza. They have violated numerous parts of the peace agreement, but this may not trigger a full-on response with the Israel Defense Forces rolling back into Gaza. Trump noted Hamas malfeasance and also that he had agreements from his peace coalition partners to deal with it.

It is unclear, though, if Arab partners can get a handle on Hamas, but all parties involved understand that a full solution to the Israel-Palestinian issue will unfold over generations. The idea of “linkage,” the belief that Israel must resolve disputes with Palestinians prior to broader regional peace, is defunct.

All parties have used the Palestinians as leverage previously, but now they have alternate incentives to trump that concern. The major players jockey for position in a new Middle East by subordinating old squabbles to take advantage of new opportunities. No one is singing “Kumbaya” around a campfire, but with a new marketplace forming, no one wants to be outside the oasis.

By starting with mutually beneficial deals and the prospect for more, Trump created a different dynamic. This is not about military conquest or diplomatic debate; it is a competition to gain a piece of prosperity, perhaps even an advantage over the other players. He tapped right into the psyche of the people in the neighborhood and invited them to his favorite way to handle problems: the deal.

It also offers a chance to move countries like Qatar and Turkey away from their support of terrorism and Islamist causes. That is a major piece of this puzzle. By giving them a path to security and prosperity, and even the chance to be more important on the world stage, Washington gains leverage to influence their behavior. They cannot have both the destructive ties to jihadists and the constructive ties to a U.S. partnership.

Of course, fulfillment of Trump’s strategy remains a long shot; many things must go right for it to even have a chance. But perhaps its greatest advantage is that it does not double down on the failures of the past, constrain itself with false conventional wisdom, nor ignore the importance of self-interest in tying the Middle East’s disparate countries together.