Can Pakistan Be Trusted in Gaza?

Islamabad Cannot Afford to Upset Turkey or Qatar and Is Far More Likely to Help Rebuild Hamas than to Disarm It

The Pakistan army faces insurgents and influential Islamist lobbies at home.

The Pakistan army faces insurgents and influential Islamist lobbies at home.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has praised Pakistan’s willingness to deploy 3,500 troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, though he has also stated that he has not received any formal commitment. This should not surprise. While Islamabad may wish to ingratiate itself with President Donald Trump by sending troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, doing so could exacerbate Pakistan’s security challenges. Pakistan’s madrasa-educated Field Marshal Asim Munir’s response is delay and diplomatic cud-chewing.

While Islamabad may wish to ingratiate itself with President Donald Trump by sending troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, doing so could exacerbate Pakistan’s security challenges.

Munir already has plenty of headaches at home. Internally, he faces an entrenched Baluchistan insurgency while Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan attacks frustrate the Pakistani army elsewhere. Additionally, the army faces a legitimacy crisis arising from former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s supporters who control aspects of state and society and seek to undermine Munir. Influential Islamist lobbies continue to criticize the Pakistani army for its support of America’s Global War on Terror against the Taliban after the September 11 attacks. But most importantly, Pakistan faces a challenge from nuclear-armed India. In May 2025, both countries engaged in a four-day war after Pakistan-supported terrorists orchestrated the Pahalgam terror attack in Indian Kashmir, killing twenty-six Hindus.

More recently, he must fear blowback from Pakistan’s own encouragement, if not sponsorship, of the protests that culminated in secularist Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s August 2024 ouster in Bangladesh. Islamists filled the vacuum. Fearing the spread of Islamist violence in the Siliguri Corridor and the “Seven Sisters” of the Northeast Region, India may take military action inside Bangladesh and against Dhaka-based Pakistani intelligence elements—a scenario that could escalate into full-fledged war. Pakistan’s coup in Bangladesh did not bring the strategic checkmate Munir envisioned, as India developed its own ties with Afghanistan’s Taliban regime at Pakistan’s expense. Friction with the Taliban is eroding the Pakistani army’s credibility among Pashtun-dominated Islamist parties like Jamiat-Ulema-e-Hind, whose chief, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, recently criticized Pakistan’s attacks on the Taliban. Hence, Pakistan needs an abundant supply of battle-hardened troops on both its eastern and western frontiers.

Ingratiating himself with Trump could also antagonize Pakistan’s closest allies, Turkey and Qatar, both of whom support Hamas. Islamabad cannot afford to upset either ally. Pakistan has a robust defense partnership with Turkey, and Qatar is one of the most prominent financiers of Islamist organizations in South Asia.

That said, Islamabad has become increasingly reliant on Washington as an ally as Pakistan’s relations with India deteriorate and the threat of war looms. For its geopolitical interests, the Pakistan army can betray its local Islamist factions without much damage. In 1970, Pakistan’s Islamist military dictator, General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, helped Jordan’s King Hussein crush Palestinian refugees and terrorists during their Black September uprising, killing perhaps 25,000 Palestinians. Zia became Pakistan’s military dictator after executing Pakistan’s popular leader, his master and former prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Zia left his legacy in an array of jihadi terrorist groups, Islamist political parties, a highly Islamized political and cultural milieu, and a robust South Asian jihadist ecosystem, creating disruptions across the globe.

Pakistani intelligence kept a façade of supporting the American war effort while strengthening and sheltering Taliban and Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden.

Rubio should beware: American lives are at stake. Pakistan has a history of hunting with the hounds and running with the hare. Pakistani intelligence kept a façade of supporting the American war effort while strengthening and sheltering Taliban and Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden. Later, Pakistan-supported terror outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba fought alongside the Taliban against the United States. Notably, after 2023, Hamas has developed robust ties with these terror groups. Also, Hamas perpetrators of the October 7, 2023, attack in Israel received their training in the terrorist camps of the Taliban and the Haqqani network, known for their ties to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency.

Simply put, Pakistan will never facilitate the disarmament of Hamas sincerely. It is far more likely to help rebuild Hamas and nurture their networks with South Asian terror groups. Most likely, Pakistanis will successfully manage the domestic Islamist groups either with coercion or with money and fool the United States with tokenism.

Abhinav Pandya
Abhinav Pandya
Abhinav Pandya is the founder and chief executive officer of the Usanas Foundation, an Indian foreign policy and security think tank.
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