Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani, Director of the Middle East Forum’s Iran Freedom Project and a founding member of Iran Freedom Congress, joins i24NEWS to discuss mounting internal pressure on Iran’s regime, explain why widespread anger has not yet produced renewed protest, and outline what he believes is still required before a credible political transition can emerge.
Host: With more and more of these reports of increased security crackdowns across Iran, I’m curious from your understanding: how much pressure is the regime actually under right now? Are we seeing any early signs of instability, or is the government still firmly in control?
Youssefiani: Yes, thank you for having me. There is absolutely no question that the regime feels the pain. It feels the threat. It feels that it has lost grip, certainly of its own legitimacy, and no longer stands with the Iranian people. But it is resilient. It has recognized before this war that this will be an existential battle, and it is prepared to take all measures and fight to the death.
And that is exactly what we need to consider when we look at the dynamics in Iran. It is important to realize that air force action alone will not do the job. And if the goal is regime collapse, other items need to be factored in. But the Iranian people are absolutely frustrated, angry with the regime. They do see the measures being taken in the streets - checkpoints, internet shutdown, telephone shutdown.
All access to the world has been shut down because they know that the regime is hunkered down, and it is a matter of time for them to decide what and where and when to take action.
Host: You talk about this anger from the Iranian people, but there are also increasing reports of some anger and frustration in Israel that there has not been this internal uprising to actually try and combat the regime inside Iran. What will it actually take? Because you said it is more than just air raid and air support. What will it take for these protesters to get back to the streets? If this war stops tomorrow, why would protesters go back to the streets to face the same fate of being shot down and murdered by regime forces?
Youssefiani: Yes, we did establish that anger is universal in Iran. Rejection of the regime is a firm position that the Iranian people have demonstrated to the world and to the regime itself. But anger and rejection is not enough. You need at least three elements, three key elements that need to be brought together for the Iranian people to actually recognize that their moment - I call moment supreme - has arrived.
And the first is for them to see firmly, visibly, and actionable that the regime is seeing incapacity. Number two, they need to have the confidence that the security forces have broken down and that they will not be slaughtered as they were just last month by the thousands.
And the third most critical element here - and that is where the Iran Freedom Congress comes into play - is that the Iranian people and the world, in fact, need to recognize and see tangibly, visibly the formation of a serious political alternative waiting on the other side.
And we believe there is no alternative that can be put together unless it is pluralistic, a real national coalition that offers an option for a calm, steady transition.
Host: So as it stands right now, is there a realistic roadmap for a transitional government that you are talking about? Because without one, there is the fear that a power vacuum could take place inside Iran.
Youssefiani: Yes, we have learned that the history of the region demonstrates that political options need to be factored in and put together, assembled and built before regime change through kinetic action or velvet color revolutions. Things need to be brought together prior to that.
The fact is that the Iranian opposition has been traveling rudderless for 47 years. If not too late, the time is now that it be nurtured, offered patronage, offered support, encouraged, and formally pushed by the powers that right now are determining and writing the history of Iran.
The Iran Freedom Congress is one such effort needing nurturing. But I must add that, to be clear, the strains of war on the homeland are seriously affecting the Iran Freedom Congress’s elasticity and capacity to stay true to its philosophy of pluralism, which is mission critical for post-regime Iran.
And this is where I believe both Washington and Israel and European powers that have an interest in a steady transition in Iran must give better patronage and closer attention to the political option after the fact.
