Is the Iranian Regime Fracturing?

Middle East Forum Chief Strategist Jim Hanson spoke with Jesse Watters on FOX News about the renewed fighting in Iran. Will President Trump reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force? Is the Iranian regime facing internal pressure and dissent? Will the United Sstates put troops on the ground?

Watch the full segment here or read the transcript below.

Transcript:

FOX: Jim Hanson, former Army Special Forces president of WorldStrat.

Jim, you and I back to Iran on a Monday. Looks like the blockade’s back, the oil sanctions slapped back on. How do you see these new developments?

HANSON: I think the Iranians got on President Trump’s last nerve with this refusal to negotiate in good faith. And we’ve heard from inside the country that there are fractures inside both the IRGC and the Council (Assembly) of Experts there, you know, Ayatollahs.

So there is not any kind of concerted energy inside there. And all of them now have to be considering the fact that the end game for this may be the end of the Islamic Republic if they don’t play their cards right.

FOX: When you say end of the Republic, what do you mean by that?

HANSON: I don’t mean going in, invading, and toppling the regime, using our boots on the ground, but there are an awful lot of people in that country who have had enough of that 47 years of death and destruction, of that waste of their blood and their treasure, and what could be a prosperous nation.

They would like something other than a tyrannical religious theocracy running the country. And at some level, I think it might be time for us to say so would we, and so would the rest of the civilized world.

FOX: Do you think you can shatter the Iranian leadership? I mean, like another layer or two layers of decapitation strikes, especially on the military side? Because it looks like the military is sabotaging this deal, and the guys making the deal don’t have the juice to enforce it.

HANSON: Yeah, I think the most extreme elements are within the religious and the IRGC elements. You know, you’ve got a civilian leadership at some level that we might be able to make a deal with. But the rest of them, I don’t see any reason not to start whacking them.

Like you said, we’ve got lists. You know, we know where they are. The CIA and Mossad have been watching them for plenty long. You know, it might be time to return a few more of them to ambient temperature.

FOX: What would trigger Trump to do that. Looks like the blockade’s back. They can’t sell oil anymore, and they can’t buy and sell anything with the blockade. And now, I mean, you’re in, probably you’re going to see day four of serious bombardment along the coastline.

What takes it to the next level?

HANSON: I think the first thing President Trump’s going to do is own the Strait of Hormuz. That’s vital. You know, we can’t let them have that. That’s their only threat left.

It’s not like they can say, oh,you’re going to blockade. We’re going to stop your blockade, line the navies up and you’ll fire broadsides at each other. Their navy’s on the bottom of the ocean. They got nothing left but a few mosquito boats, as you call them. And those aren’t going to be a problem.

So he will take control of that and ensure that oil can flow out for those people who deserve to have the oil flow out. But that shuts off all the revenue again to the Iranians. And he had to stop that because the world’s oil reserves were running a little low. And now he’s figured out how to do that. If we keep it open by force and they can’t get theirs out, solves both problems.

FOX: Right. If that doesn’t work, then we go to the next step. Right. And then that. dynamic was what brought them to the table in the 1st place.

You saw former CENTCOM commander on, I believe, Face the Nation. You know, like the president watches the Sunday shows when he talks about going at Kharg Island. Do you think that’s seriously being considered?

HANSON: I’m not a fan of putting boots on any piece of Iranian soil other than the secret squirrel types who are already running around doing fun stuff. You know, but putting our troops there in an open fashion just invites short-term attacks. All of their missiles and drones and other things and problems they can cause are there.

We don’t need Kharg Island if they can’t get the oil out. it’s symbolic. We shut Kharg Island down with the blockade as easily as we do by going there and turning off the taps. Maybe send the SEALs in and blow something up just for grins.

FOX: Okay, that seems like a very good point. Jim, thank you as always. We might have to see you back here on Monday.

HANSON: Always.