Deterrence, the act of discouraging an opponent from taking an unwelcome action by instilling fear of the consequences, has been a central goal of American Mideast policy for decades. In a region swimming with millenarian religious beliefs, political cultures that reward military defeat, and oil wealth that insulates governing elites from pubic backlash, instilling fear of consequences in rogue actors can be tricky. But the persistent American failure to deter Iran from aggressively pursuing its regional hegemonic ambitions has little to do with the subject's cultural or political idiosyncrasies. Distinguishing between what the Islamic Republic considers costly consequences and what it doesn't (Iranian lives vs. the lives of its Arab proxies, for example) is not rocket science. The textbook principles of deterrence aren't applied in the case of Iran because Washington policymakers don't want them applied. |