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At a panel on May 17, 2023, held at the Middle East Forum’s Transformations 2023 retreat in Washington, DC, MEF Washington Project Director Cliff Smith discussed Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (video) with four representatives of groups that oppose Erdoğan’s government and seek to change American policy toward Turkey. He was joined by Samir Karla of the Hindu American Foundation (HAF), Endy Zemenides of the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC), Aram Hamparian of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), and Rich Ghazal of In Defense of Christians (IDC). The following is a summary of their remarks:
Smith opened the discussion by quoting American Enterprise Institute scholar Michael Rubin, who said that “Turkey is to radical Islam today what Saudi Arabia was in the twentieth century. Yet it remains a NATO ally, and thus an even more serious challenge to American foreign policy.”
Recent election results in Turkey saw Erdoğan take the lead despite a failing economy, tense international relations, and a repressive crackdown on civil society, among other problems. This was “the worst possible result,” according to Zemenides, not because Erdoğan was well ahead, which was expected, but because of the “overperformance of the nationalists,” whose leader is a “straight out fascist.” When his vote count is added to those of other parties, “you’re looking at a Turkey that’s . . . 60 or 65 percent anti-Western.”
Turkey is to radical Islam today what Saudi Arabia was in the twentieth century. Yet it remains a NATO ally, and thus an even more serious challenge to American foreign policy.
Hamparian stated that Erdoğan has deliberately “decided to take his country in a different direction” from the Western-oriented path it followed since modern Turkey’s founding in 1923. Erdoğan is a “clear thinker,” he added, while those in Washington, DC, are “wishful thinkers,” a fact that will produce poor policy decisions toward Turkey. When it comes to any point of dispute, such as upgrades to Turkey’s F-16 fleet, “we’re on our back foot; Turkey is on its front foot.”
Karla pointed out that many Pakistanis believe – without evidence – they are of Turkish ancestry, a myth Erdoğan uses as “soft power and information propaganda” to encourage closer ties between the two countries. This harms U.S. and Indian interests and will continue in a new Erdoğan administration.
According to Ghazal, under Erdoğan a “young generation of Turks” was socialized, educated, and raised, a development that “changed the face” of Turkey’s culture and politics. As a result, even if Erdoğan had not won, given his opponents’ advanced age, in time “a student of the Erdoğan ideology” would likely take over.
Smith pointed out that Erdoğan was already working at bending the rules governing the runoff to help himself and asked how Americans should respond. Zemenides lamented that Elon Musk had banned opposition Turks from Twitter. “We’re not even letting dissenting voices in America speak. . . . I think we already blew our chance,” he said, adding that Erdoğan “controls every medium,” a fact that makes Musk’s actions even worse.
Turkey is “a very nice place to be if you’re an authoritarian state,” said Hamparian, since even if the U.S. government criticizes it, there are few long-term consequences because the federal bureaucracy is afraid to offend Turkey. Before Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina got involved, President Trump didn’t want to intervene to save Pastor Andrew Brunson, an American wrongly imprisoned in Turkey for two years. It was only at Tillis’s urging that Trump told Erdoğan he would destroy Turkey’s economy unless Brunson was freed. There was also a fear of recognizing the Armenian genocide, which caused no real backlash – another sign that America’s Turkish policy needs to be updated.
U.S. policy toward Turkey has changed on some items, Smith noted, pointing to Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program along with the sale of advanced F-16 upgrades now in jeopardy. Ghazal admitted this was true, but said it insufficient to hold Turkey accountable. As evidence, he pointed to Turkey’s repeated aggressions in Northern Syria, which have violated a U.S.-brokered ceasefire numerous times.
Zemenides attributed the changes that have occurred more to Congress than any administration, citing leaders such as Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), both of whom were instrumental on these issues. He said that some of the changes adopted by Congress mean that Turkey has had to become reactive in its policies. Zemenides added that although Turkey is larger than Greece, Israel, or any other country in the area, the collection of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, France, Jordan, and Egypt, which are largely in line against Turkey, is larger. That fact, plus increased U.S. cooperation with those nations, minimizes Turkey’s influence.
Smith asked what the Baku Declaration, signed by Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey after the war in Armenia, meant to the U.S. and its allies. Karla said that the agreement went beyond military cooperation and that these countries were working together diplomatically as well, as shown by their collaboration on issues like Afghanistan and Kashmir. But he also noted that Pakistan’s stock is “dropping in this city,” and that its trajectory should be like Turkey’s. Washington shouldn’t fret about upsetting Pakistan, he said, as it is a “failed state.”
Erdoğan is a “clear thinker,” while those in Washington, DC, are “wishful thinkers,” a fact that will produce poor policy decisions toward Turkey.
Ghazal noted that after the defeat of ISIS, Christians in Syria believed they were free, only to experience harsh oppression from Turkish-backed radicals similar to ISIS who were intent on establishing a mini-caliphate. Pointing to the Kurdish-backed Syrian Democratic Council’s counter-example, he stressed that Turkey “seeks to undo” this “remarkable” experiment. “We are not nation building; the people of the land (are) organically developing this.” Zemenides referred to Turkey’s actions in Syria as part of a thirty-year Christian genocide not unlike the Armenian genocide.
Smith asked about Turkey’s role in the Ukraine war. Hamparian responded that the U.S. should look at the situation with “open eyes” on “how Turkey is being helpful and unhelpful regarding Ukraine.” “They’re certainly less friendly than any other NATO ally,” he added. Zemenides pointed to apparent Turkish cooperation with Iran on supplying drones used by Russia and its allies, a move that demonstrates Turkey’s duplicity.
