Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the ALMA Research and Education Center in northern Israel, spoke to a July 20 Middle East Forum podcast (video). The following summarizes her comments:
Israel pushed back Hezbollah approximately 10 kilometers from the Lebanese border and established a security zone up to the Litani River in south Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are also in the process of neutralizing Hezbollah’s extensive hidden tunnel system that housed the Iranian Shiite proxy’s weaponry and military operatives.
Six border-crossing tunnels were found in 2018-19 and a seventh in 2024. All have been blocked by the IDF, which also discovered “tons of underground infrastructures”—hidden headquarters, launching pads, strategic tunnels, and even an underground town built below villages above with its own network of “approaching” tunnels. The approaching tunnels differ from the border-crossing tunnels established on Lebanon’s Syrian border that were used to smuggle weapons to the “land of tunnels of Hezbollah” in south Lebanon. Strategically located 10 kilometers from the border, the approaching tunnels were planned secretly to afford Hezbollah a tactical position for invading Israel’s northern communities.
Although the IDF has bombed them by air, there are still underground tunnels north of the Litani River where the IDF cannot maneuver.
Despite the current success in denying it the ability to launch an invasion, Hezbollah is still smuggling thousands of rockets and drones into Lebanon from Syria and from Iran through Iraq. The drones fly fast and low and are accurate. Moreover, they are a greater threat because they cannot be electronically intercepted. Israel is addressing the drone threat by eliminating cells of operators trained to dispatch them.
Although the IDF has bombed them by air, there are still underground tunnels north of the Litani River where the IDF cannot maneuver: in the Bekaa Valley, the rearguard base for Hezbollah’s weapons storage and operations; Beirut, where Hezbollah is headquartered; and tunnels used to smuggle weapons across the Syrian border. These are threats out of reach because of the ceasefire, “and our hands are tied.” This also means that manufacturing facilities being built in varied locales in Lebanon are not being bombed by Israel as they were in 2025. There are reports that Hezbollah is trying to send its liaison officers into south Lebanon to rebuild its Radwan Brigade capabilities. If the IDF yields to pressure to exit Lebanon, those brigades will likely fill the vacuum at the border.
Iranian proxies are no longer a strategic threat to Israel because they are incapable of launching an invasion. However, the threat to northern Israel from Hezbollah rockets and Iranian missiles not only adversely affects the ability of the communities in Israel’s north to resume their normal routines, but it has also decimated the tourism industry there.
Hezbollah is more invested in rebuilding its power than restoring civilian infrastructure. That its new leader, Naim Qassem, is weaker and less charismatic than its former leader Nasrallah means Iran is more involved in the daily decision-making process of its proxy. Although the Lebanese government should shut down Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps headquarters in Beirut’s Iranian embassy, under President Aoun it is weak and paralyzed by fears of a civil war erupting if it takes a stand against Hezbollah.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) is designed as a step-by-step approach, stipulating that pilot zones, once stabilized by the IDF, will be taken over by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) tasked with disarming Hezbollah. Three pilot zones are already in play, but the LAF is insistent that its deployment in those zones should be sufficient for the IDF to withdraw. The IDF is loathe to vacate until they see proof that the LAF is removing Hezbollah’s weapons from the houses, civilian infrastructure, and tunnels.
Two decades of Lebanon’s broken promises to the IDF that it would reign in Hezbollah means Israel will require proof of the MOU’s success. The LAF fears a violent confrontation because half their forces are Shiite Muslim. The head of the LAF has said that “he’s not interested in confrontation with Hezbollah, while Hezbollah is saying very clearly that it is not going to disarm.” What’s more, there are Hezbollah ministers inside the Lebanese government itself that are directing state budgets towards Hezbollah infrastructure. However, there are those among the Lebanese population saying they have had enough and want government leaders to “stop the situation of a state within a state.”
A violent clash would be a positive development because it would signify a break between Lebanon’s Shiite Muslims and Hezbollah. “Hezbollah should be designated a terrorist entity, not only in the U.S. and in some places in Europe, but also in Lebanon itself, and this will bring a true change.”
The U.S. can see to it that Israel has the “freedom of operation” to attack Hezbollah’s manufacturing facilities and smuggling routes in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
The U.S. can see to it that Israel has the “freedom of operation” to attack Hezbollah’s manufacturing facilities and smuggling routes in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Within Lebanon, President Aoun needs to remove any decision-making by the advisor for reconstruction “who is a Hezbollah member, officially.” He should clean out collaborators and Hezbollah supporters from the LAF and block all financial activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon. From there, disarming a weakened Hezbollah will be easier.
The alliance between Israel and the U.S. is a long and deep one and should be preserved. “If the price of this alliance will be the withdrawal of Israel from the security zone without a functioning sovereignty of the Lebanese government making sure that Hezbollah is not going back there,” Hezbollah’s ability to launch an infiltration squad would endanger the security of northern Israel’s residents. This precludes Israel’s northern communities from having a future. They need the Israeli government to invest in “not only offense, but defense” by building enough shelters in schools and public areas to ensure their safety.
“Israel should draw very specific red lines with regard to this ceasefire” given Lebanon’s failure over the past two decades to secure the southern portion of the country. If those red lines are crossed and Hezbollah rebuilds its military to deploy in south Lebanon, Israel’s military operations will return.
“The only reason that I’m alive … here speaking to you, is because of a miracle” that Hezbollah did not launch its invasion on October 7, 2023. Israelis are optimistic and resilient, and many families want to return to live in the north, but they will not neglect their security and can no longer rely on miracles.
