Turkey’s foreign policy is often defined by its contradictions. But in the most recent strategic moves concerning Syria, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has abandoned contradiction for a form of clinical, two-faced realism that simultaneously commits to war and calls for peace.
Within the same 48-hour window, Ankara executed a stunning strategic pivot: restoring full diplomatic relations with Damascus for the first time in 13 years by naming a new ambassador, while the Turkish Parliament approved an unprecedented three-year extension of the mandate authorizing cross-border military operations in northern Syria and Iraq.
This is not a sign of reconciliation or ideological shift; it is a masterful demonstration of how Turkey intends to use military force to secure its interests, and diplomacy to manage the resulting geopolitical fallout. This doctrine makes Ankara the uncontested geopolitical victor in the post-Assad environment.
The Stick: Institutionalizing the Occupation
The parliamentary extension of the military mandate until 2028 is the longest granted since Turkey launched its first cross-border intervention in 2016. This decision formally institutionalizes Turkey’s long-term military presence in northern Syria and Iraq. It signals that Ankara’s involvement is no longer a temporary counter-terrorism measure but a permanent, structural element of its defense policy.
The primary strategic objective remains the elimination of Kurdish forces, which Ankara considers affiliates of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), specifically the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria. The renewed mandate grants President Erdoğan continued executive authority over the scope and timing of operations, guaranteeing the strategic effort to secure a non-negotiable, 30-kilometer deep buffer zone along the Syrian border.
This doctrine makes Ankara the uncontested geopolitical victor in the post-Assad environment.
This institutionalization communicates clearly to Russia and the new government in Damascus that Turkish territorial claims in the north are irreversible in the short-to-medium term.
Beyond territory, Turkey is actively dictating the military doctrine of the new security force. Through a military training and advisory agreement, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) are providing Syrian soldiers with advanced infantry and commando training, mirroring the rigorous programs administered to Turkish troops.
This level of doctrinal control ensures that the New Syrian Army’s capabilities and strategic culture will be inextricably linked to Ankara’s regional interests. Damascus gains crucial military stability, but the state effectively delegates significant hard security autonomy to Ankara, establishing Turkey as the long-term security architect.
The Carrot: Transactional Diplomacy and the Financial Brake
The appointment of the ambassador to Damascus is the calculated diplomatic counter-move. Since the 2012 break, Turkey has hosted millions of Syrian refugees. The normalization push-including the resumption of Turkish Airlines flights and the reopening of the Aleppo consulate-is the “carrot” designed to manage the devastating downstream consequences of the civil war.
Ankara is not pursuing ideological transformation in Damascus; it is pursuing security and economic stability on its own terms. Normalization forces the new Syrian government to cooperate on two key issues:
Damascus gains crucial military stability, but the state effectively delegates significant hard security autonomy to Ankara.
First, refugee management, providing a political partner to manage the massive Syrian population currently residing within Turkey’s borders.
Second, economic re-engagement, reopening vital commercial ties, particularly through the strategically important city of Aleppo, which is essential for Turkish businesses and Ankara’s own national economic stability efforts.
The key to understanding this dual strategy lies in Turkey’s internal economy. The necessity for Turkey to aggressively attract foreign direct investment and manage its chronic Lira fluctuation imposes a “financial brake” on Erdoğan’s strategic depth.
Expensive, drawn-out military operations or sustained occupations risk spooking international investors, thereby undermining essential financial normalization efforts. This constraint compels Turkey to be strategically efficient: using targeted, decisive strikes for military effect, and then immediately switching to low-cost diplomacy to consolidate political gains without incurring the massive fiscal burden of a prolonged, full-scale confrontation.
The Fusion of Doctrine: Ankara as Architect
The fusion of these two strategies-the stick and the carrot-is a masterful display of realpolitik. Turkey has successfully used military dominance to dictate the terms of diplomacy. It has achieved a decisive, irreversible military presence on the ground while simultaneously securing diplomatic channels for economic gain and refugee management.
This calculated tactic strengthens Turkish influence across the Levant and gives the impression that its national security doctrine prioritizes pragmatic self-interest over ideological consistency. Israel will have to decide how this development affects its decisions on both Turkey and Syria.
Published originally on November 24, 2025.
