On the night of February 3, 2026, the fragile hope for a unified Libyan state may have finally bled out on the floor of a residence in Zintan. The assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi—carried out by a four-man hit squad with professional precision—was not merely a local militia skirmish. It was a calculated “cleansing” operation that simplifies the Libyan political map at the cost of its last remaining bridge between the warring East and West.
As UN Special Representative Hanna Tetteh prepares to brief the Security Council later this month on the fallout, the international community must confront a grim reality: Libya is no longer a country in transition. It is a locked-in duopoly of warlord fiefdoms, where the elimination of “spoilers” like Saif al-Islam has become the prerequisite for a hollow, elite-driven “stability.”
A “Professional” Signature
The methodology of the February 3 attack suggests a level of sophistication that far exceeds the standard “drive-by” tactics of Libya’s fractious militias. The assailants disabled high-tech surveillance systems, neutralized local security, and executed the 53-year-old Gaddir heir with clinical efficiency before vanishing.
The timing is even more revealing. The assassination occurred exactly six days after a high-level meeting at the Élysée Palace in Paris, where Saddam Haftar (son of the eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar) and advisors to Tripoli’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh reportedly discussed a “unification roadmap.” In the cynical logic of Libyan realpolitik, “unification” often translates to the removal of third-party challengers who threaten the status quo.
The Threat of the “Green” Alternative
To the Western eye, Saif al-Islam was a ghost of a reviled regime, a man wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). But to a significant portion of the Libyan electorate, he was something far more dangerous to the current elite: a viable alternative.
A 2022 Arab Barometer survey indicated that Saif al-Islam held a 45% trust rating among Libyans—higher than either Dbeibeh or Haftar. He represented the “Green” constituency, a silent plurality nostalgic for the perceived stability of the pre-2011 era and exhausted by fifteen years of militia rule.
Saif was the only figure capable of bridging the geographic divide. He held tribal legitimacy in the “Green” heartlands of the center and south, while maintaining a shadowy but persistent influence in the Tripolitanian hinterlands. His removal effectively disenfranchises millions of Libyans who saw him as the only “off-ramp” from the Haftar-Dbeibeh duopoly. By killing Saif, the rival elites haven’t brought peace; they have simply ensured that the Libyan people have no choice but to accept one of two bad options.
The UN’s “Roadmap” to Nowhere
Hanna Tetteh’s upcoming briefing to the Security Council will likely emphasize the need for “restraint” and the “continuation of the political process.” Yet, this UN-led process has become a farce. The “Structured Dialogue” and the various “6+6” committees are increasingly viewed as a theater designed to provide international legitimacy to a system of permanent partition.
The UN’s insistence on a “Libyan-led” process has inadvertently allowed the country’s strongest men to veto any electoral framework that doesn’t guarantee their own survival. Saif al-Islam was the ultimate “wild card” who could have upended a rigged election. With him gone, the “road to elections” is no longer a path to democracy; it is a paved highway toward a formal division of the spoils between the Tripoli-based GNU and the Haftar family.
Exporting Instability
The death of the “Green” alternative ensures that Libya will remain a collection of warlord fiefdoms for the foreseeable future. This is not just a tragedy for Libyans; it is a security nightmare for the Mediterranean. Without a central sovereign authority, Libya continues to serve as a “ratline” for illicit trade—from the “ghost ships” carrying Russian hardware to the human trafficking networks feeding the European migration crisis.
The Haftar-Dbeibeh “Cold Peace” is built on the suppression of domestic rivals, not the building of state institutions. As the “shadow fleet” of tankers and cargo vessels continues to find safe harbor in lawless ports like Mers el-Kebir and Sirte, the Mediterranean is being transformed into a rogue state highway.
The Verdict
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi was a deeply flawed figure, a man whose legacy was stained by the blood of the 2011 uprising. But his assassination marks the end of Libya as a unified political project. The “Green” camp is now fragmented, its anchor lost, and its supporters left with a choice between subservience to the Haftars or the Dbeibehs.
Published originally on February 9, 2026, under the title “Libya’s Last Hope? The Murder of Saif Gaddafi Ends the Dream of a Unified State.”
