The Southern Transitional Council move to consolidate control in Hadramawt and Mahrah—effectively ending the last remaining military presence of Muslim Brotherhood–aligned factions collaborating with the Houthis—confirmed what most honest observers have understood for years: Yemen no longer is a unified state. The illusion of the 1990 union collapsed first during the northern war against the South in 1994, and again when the Iranian-backed Houthis seized Sanaa in 2015.
Today, two distinct political entities exist on the ground. In North Yemen, the Houthis have entrenched a theocratic, Iran-aligned regime hostile to the United States and Western security interests. The Houthi regime coordinates with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, facilitates weapons transfers, colluding with the Muslim Brotherhood, and welcoming Russian and Chinese influence into the region’s maritime sphere.
The Southern Transitional Council governs the territory of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, backed by the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
In South Yemen, the Southern Transitional Council governs the territory of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, backed by the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It secures major ports, combats al Qaeda, and intercepts Iran-Houthi smuggling. Crucially, it protects the Bab al-Mandeb—one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.
The strategic ports of Aden and Mukalla, along with the islands of Perim at the entrance to the Red Sea and Socotra, offer unique potential. These are reliable, stable hubs for maritime logistics, counterterrorism, and U.S. naval access—far more dependable than any facilities located in unstable or Iranian-influenced environments.
The newly released White House National Security Strategy identifies priorities that South Yemen fulfills: Protecting global supply chains; securing critical maritime corridors; countering terrorism and Muslim Brotherhood; curbing Iran’s proxies; and preventing China and Russia from expanding influence across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
A stable, Western-aligned administration in South Yemen helps secure a vital waterway without requiring U.S. troops or depending on regional allies in the Persian Gulf. Southern forces already cooperate with the U.S. Navy, share intelligence on terrorist and smuggling networks, and actively resist the destabilizing influence of Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Southern Transitional Council leadership has also expressed readiness to join the Abraham Accords, expanding a regional peace framework aligned with U.S. interests.
Crucially, Aden and Socotra are convenient, secure platforms for maritime surveillance, logistics, emergency docking, and intelligence operations—enhancing American naval flexibility in the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean. For a U.S. administration determined to restore maritime security, deter Iran, compete with China and Russia, and strengthen America’s position in the Red Sea, supporting a regulated path toward Southern statehood is a low-cost, high-impact strategic win.
Southern Transitional Council President Aidarous al-Zubaidi has outlined a gradual, lawful roadmap that avoids chaos and aligns with the Saudi-Emirati consensus.
With Gulf support, the United States and regional allies can amend the Riyadh Agreement to formalize Southern Transitional Council governance across South Yemen. Self-administration does not dissolve unity overnight; instead, it converts the union into a contractual arrangement between two founding parties. This allows time for institution-building and prepares the ground for a future, internationally recognized political process—including a referendum on self-determination after five to six years.
If Yemen continues to fragment under Houthi control, a United Nations-supervised Southern referendum—like the plebiscite that confirmed Bahrain’s independence—can translate popular will into legally recognized legitimacy. Subsequent negotiations would address borders, obligations, economic arrangements, and maritime security.
If Yemen continues to fragment under Houthi control, a United Nations-supervised Southern referendum ... can translate popular will into legally recognized legitimacy.
The alternative would be a reality shaped without American influence. A unilateral Southern declaration of independence remains legally possible, as affirmed by the International Court of Justice in the Kosovo advisory opinion. But taking such a step without clear Saudi-Emirati backing and U.S. engagement risks generating a vacuum that Iran would exploit—extending its reach into the Red Sea, threatening global shipping, and enabling China and Russia to expand their maritime presence.
Washington, therefore, faces a choice: Shape the outcome, or accept an outcome shaped by others.
A decisive American stance supporting a supervised pathway to a Southern state would reassert U.S. leadership in one of the world’s most contested maritime arenas; roll back Iranian influence at virtually no cost to the United States; counter China’s and Russia’s growing interest in the Red Sea; strengthen and expand the Abraham Accords, with South Yemen ready to join a regional peace architecture; protect global trade routes without deploying American troops; and deliver a strategic victory that corrects decades of failed assumptions about Yemeni unity.
For an administration committed to peace through strength, securing America’s maritime position, and achieving wins in great-power competition, a stable and pro-American South Yemen is a historic opportunity that President Donald Trump should not squander.
