Israel has celebrated its warming ties with India since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power. Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get along on a personal level and have found common ground on trade, technology, counterterrorism, and defense.
Those warm ties, however, did not form in a vacuum. Modi and Netanyahu largely developed their ties on a scaffolding provided by U.S.-India rapprochement. Every U.S. president since George W. Bush has prioritized developing U.S-India relations after decades of Cold War tension. While bilateral ties have had many ups and downs, the trajectory was always upward.
Trump flipped to a pro-Pakistan position in his current term ... angering not only New Delhi, but Indian society at large.
That is no longer the case. Under the Biden administration, India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war became an irritant. Hindu nationalists celebrated Donald Trump’s win, believing Washington would resume the pro-India, anti-Islamist positions that characterized his first term. Trump flipped to a pro-Pakistan position in his current term, however, angering not only New Delhi, but Indian society at large. His imposition of the 25 percent tariffs on Indian exports and a 25 percent additional levy for buying Russian oil was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Today, Modi reportedly refuses to take Trump’s calls.
Despite the current strains in ties, U.S. and Indian interests converge in the Middle East. Modi has established a strong defense and strategic partnership with Israel, a relationship that extends beyond official channels. It is based on trust, respect, and understanding of each other’s concerns. The shared existential threat from radical Islam makes this partnership a natural bond. Additionally, India has developed good bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. These Arab monarchies maintain relatively close ties with the United States and Israel, although neither Saudi Arabia nor Oman has official diplomatic relations with Israel. India also plays a significant role in regional connectivity initiatives like the India-Middle East Economic Corridor and groups such as the India-Israel-United Arab Emirates-United States (I2U2) quartet.
The ongoing estrangement between Washington and New Delhi could potentially harm India-Israel ties, though. In India, many diplomats, generals, and intelligence officials harbor an anti-Israel bias, either due to personal ideological beliefs or the legacy of their Cold War upbringing, an obsession with India’s civilizational links to Middle Eastern countries, and in some cases because of ties with global Islamist lobbies for personal gain. Over the past several decades, they have argued that close relations with Israel could hurt Indian Muslims’ sentiments and lead to security challenges both internally and externally. Exacerbating this is ongoing Muslim radicalization and polarization driven by Modi’s strong counterterrorism efforts and the spread of Hindu nationalist sentiment.
Legacies of India’s Cold War past could still persuade New Delhi that it should not trust Washington and Jerusalem, as America’s key ally.
Fundamentally, such anti-Israel thinking is lazy. Decades of Indian support for Palestine and United Nations votes against Israel did not prevent the earlier rise of jihadist groups like the Popular Front of India, nor did they foster any special affinity or loyalty for India among Indian Muslims. Nevertheless, the old establishment still holds sway within India’s think tanks, diplomatic circles, and broader strategic circles. Through personal connections with politicians, senior diplomats, and intelligence officials, they continue to influence government policies.
These legacies of India’s Cold War past could still persuade New Delhi that it should not trust Washington and Jerusalem, as America’s key ally, and that India would be better off returning to its traditional diplomacy in the Middle East, favoring countries like Iran and movements like the Palestinian cause. Islamist groups and their foreign backers like Turkey and Qatar, meanwhile, are eager to remove the ruling Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and will seek to exploit divisions in U.S.-India relations to undermine India-Israel ties.
Broader thinkers recognize that the India-Israel partnership is crucial, strategic, and greater than Trump’s eccentricities. The question is, with Trump continuing to needlessly antagonize Indians, whether they will prevail.
