As Vice President Delcy Rogriguez replaced Nicolás Maduro as the interim president of Venezuela on January 5, 2026, reports indicated that the United States supported the move to maintain order in the country and obviate the need for a deployment of tens of thousands of troops. President Donald Trump and his political “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” base rejects nation-building generally, but especially any that involves military deployments abroad.
Rodríguez has softened her tone, calling for “cooperation” with Washington and signaling that Venezuela would prioritize more balanced and respectful relations.
CNN reported that U.S. officials have been using military and economic leverage to shape the post-Maduro landscape in Venezuela, focusing in particular on Rodríguez, whom Trump advisers had identified weeks earlier as a viable, though temporary, alternative. Despite her initial attacks following Maduro’s capture, U.S. officials privately remained confident she would engage. Indeed, Rodríguez has softened her tone, calling for “cooperation” with Washington and signaling that Venezuela would prioritize more balanced and respectful relations with the United States and the region.
At the same time, unofficial reports suggest that Qatar may have played a mediating role in arranging Rodríguez’s replacement of Maduro. (Qatari officials say they did not mediate, but only passed messages.) It was no secret that the small Persian Gulf country maintains close ties with Maduro’s ally, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as with other actors often at odds with the United States, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
The central question now is how confident the Trump administration can be that a fair and democratic transition will follow with Rodríguez occupying the presidential office. Rodríguez and other key Maduro allies will oversee elections, despite having spent years subverting them, appropriating public resources, repressing the population, and presiding over widespread killings. If this inner circle prolongs the transition process, Washington’s leverage may narrow to a single option: the threat of military force. That would mean prolonged instability and continued U.S. entanglement in Venezuela for the remainder of Trump’s term.
If the reports of Qatari involvement are true, it remains unclear whether keeping Maduro’s circle in power was a U.S. proposal facilitated by Qatar, or a Qatari initiative that Washington accepted as a convenient way to remove Maduro. What is clear, however, is that there may be no inexpensive or low-risk way for a foreign power to engineer a smooth political transition in a volatile country. The U.S. occupation of Iraq, far costlier and riskier, underscored this reality for a generation that now recoils from such interventions.
Rather than allowing pro-West opponents of the Islamic Republic to manage elections and form a future government, Qatar likely would work to empower remnants of the existing system.
Some sources reported that Qatar’s mediation, which was ongoing in 2025, failed to reach a successful compromise with the Maduro circle. Ostensibly, the talks between Washington and Rodriguez and others are continuing now, but it is more likely that a broad agreement was reached before Trump decided to act against Maduro. In fact, some observers insist that a deal was reached.
The greater concern lies beyond Venezuela. If the United States were to pursue action against Iran’s rulers and allow Qatar to shape the transition through its mediation, a similar outcome could follow. Qatar has supported Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s government for two decades, even during periods of regional isolation. Given the opportunity, Doha likely would seek to preserve influence for Iranian insiders to protect its own regional standing. For this reason, Iranian dissidents largely dislike Qatar, whom they view as providing political cover for their oppressors. Doha, therefore, would resist the emergence of a pro-West, anti-Islamist government in Tehran.
Rather than allowing pro-West opponents of the Islamic Republic to manage elections and form a future government, Qatar likely would work to empower remnants of the existing system, potentially heavily infiltrated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Such forces would use the transition to muddy the waters, buy time, and attempt a political comeback as an anti-West and anti-Israel force.
