The question of whether war between Iran and the United States will resume if negotiations collapse has taken on a new dimension after U.S. Central Command announced that, as of April 13, 2026, all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports is blockaded. The move introduces a form of sustained military pressure that stops short of renewed airstrikes but still carries clear escalatory risks. It suggests that President Donald Trump may prefer to tighten economic and strategic coercion on Tehran than to immediately return to direct military confrontation.
If successful, the blockade will strangle most of Iran’s exports, including around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil and byproducts.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded by blaming the U.S. side for the failure of the talks in Islamabad on April 10. “In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU,’ we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” he posted on X.
If successful, the blockade will strangle most of Iran’s exports, including around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil and byproducts. Iran also exports its petrochemicals, steel, and other goods from its southern ports and receives most of its imports. Grain, fertilizers and other essential commodities are carried by ship to ports that are mainly in the Strait of Hormuz and within the Persian Gulf. Ports on the Gulf of Oman have limited capacity.
The blockade would inflict heavy economic losses on Iran, cutting roughly $280 million a day in export revenues and disrupting another $160 million in imports. That amounts to a combined impact of about $435 million per day, or nearly $13 billion per month.
Iran’s vulnerability is significant. More than 90 percent of Iran’s $109.7 billion in annual trade passes through the Persian Gulf, while oil and gas generate around 80 percent of export earnings and account for 23.7 percent of gross domestic product. Kharg Island alone is estimated to bring in about $53 billion a year—though the broader figure for energy revenue reaches exceeds $70 billion annually.
The biggest impact besides Iran will be felt by China, which is importing almost all of Iran’s crude oil. Russia is an alternative source, but a lot of its export capacity has been crippled by Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.
Iran, which has lost its navy, is in no position to challenge a U.S. blockade, but the issue is how China would react if its vessels were stopped or searched by the U.S. Navy.
The blockade will exert immediate pressure on Tehran, which has faced an economic crisis since 2018, when Trump exited the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions. Since then, Iran’s currency has suffered a forty-fold collapse, from 40,000 rials per one dollar in early 2018 to 1.6 million in 2026.
On April 11, two U.S. destroyers sailed through the Strait in what signaled an American attempt to gradually reopen the vital passageway, while Iranian ports can become inaccessible.
Iran, which has lost its navy, is in no position to challenge a U.S. blockade, but the issue is how China would react if its vessels were stopped or searched by the U.S. Navy. A serious quantity of weapons or missile fuel cannot be delivered by air, but China can direct a shadow fleet without any overt Chinese connection. This would give China plausible deniability but also could enable the U.S. Navy to stop ships without risking an incident with China.
In addition to putting pressure on Iran’s economy, the blockade can prevent Iran from rebuilding its military capabilities after the United States bombed 13,000 targets in forty days of its air campaign. If Trump does not plan to resume air attacks, Tehran may try to rebuild its missile forces and air defenses. A naval blockade will help hamper such efforts.
