As the United States deploys military assets to the Middle East region in advance of a possible strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iranian leaders say they will retaliate throughout the region. The United States uses facilities in every Gulf Cooperation Council member, but Washington should pay close attention to Tehran’s likely attempt to destabilize Bahrain, a country whose independence Iranian irredentists have long disputed.
Situated 15.5 miles off the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, the majority Shi’i country has hosted the U.S. Fifth Fleet since 1995, allowing U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to ensure freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf.
[In 2011], many prominent Shi’i leaders and groups coordinated with Tehran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to try to topple the monarchy.
Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran’s leaders called for the exportation of their revolution throughout the region. In September 1979, Qom-based Ayatollah Mohammad Sadegh Rouhani warned that if Bahrain’s ruler did “not want to stop oppressing the [Bahraini] people and restore Islamic laws, we [Iranians] will call on the people of Bahrain to demand annexation to the Islamic government of Iran.” Such rhetoric would turn into action when, in December 1981, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-trained Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain attempted to overthrow Bahrain’s monarchy.
In 2011, the Bahraini government accepted assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states to suppress widespread protests. Authorities in Manama said many prominent Shi’i leaders and groups coordinated with Tehran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to try to topple the monarchy.
Iran continued its efforts to destabilize Bahrain using groups such as the Al-Ashtar Brigades, which carried out bombings and armed attacks against Bahraini security forces. Tehran also supported Saraya al-Mukhtar, which pursued similar goals and plotted attacks against U.S. personnel stationed in the country.
Fast forward to today, when several prominent Iran-backed Bahraini Shi’i figures have come out of the woodwork amidst current U.S.-Iran tensions. In January 2026, Al-Ashtar Brigades leader Alsayed Murtadha Majeed Ramadhan Alawi stated in Qom that supporters of the Islamic Republic and sleeper cells in U.S.-allied countries would strike if the United States or Israel harmed the Islamic Republic.
That same month, Grand Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qassim, a prominent Bahraini cleric stripped of his citizenship in late June 2016 and now living in Mashhad, issued a statement condemning potential U.S. military action against the Islamic regime, stating that “millions of great men and women in Iran would sacrifice themselves for him [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei]” and argued that defending Khamenei is essential for the “Muslim world and to humanity at large.”
If the Trump administration intends to bring the Islamic Republic to a quick end without igniting a wider regional war, it must prevent Iran from making Bahrain a front.
A few days later, an Iran-backed Bahraini militant platform released an AI-generated video showing the USS Abraham Lincoln with American flag-draped coffins on board and a reference to a November 2023 speech from then-Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, in which he stated that Hezbollah was “prepared well for your [U.S.] fleets, with which you are threatening us.”
If the Trump administration intends to bring the Islamic Republic to a quick end without igniting a wider regional war, it must prevent Iran from making Bahrain a front. The administration must continue to work with the Bahrain monarchy to monitor any suspicious activities by Bahraini Shi’a and interdict Iranian weapons smuggling. The United States should ensure the security of military, naval, and diplomatic personnel and, if necessary, evacuate non-essential staff from Manama, especially since many American personnel live outside the security confines of Naval Support Activity Bahrain.
Additionally, Bahrain’s second most critical ally in the region—Israel—should utilize its intelligence capabilities to track individuals such as Alawi and Qassim in Iran so that Jerusalem or Washington might render them permanently unable to incite sectarian violence or call for Bahraini Shi’a attacks on U.S. personnel.
