Venezuela’s multibillion-dollar debts to Iran have fallen into uncertainty following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro—an ally of the Islamic Republic—by the United States. Some former Iranian officials and members of parliament have cited debts of between $2 billion and $4 billion that Venezuela owed to Iran. The likely default by Venezuela comes after the December 2024 collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime made irrecoverable at least $30 billion that Syria’s Baathist regime owed to Iran.
According to the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, in 2024, Iran’s total exports to Syria and Venezuela amounted to only about $180 million. Apparently, both countries pledged to repay their debts by transferring mines and development projects to Iran, commitments they never honored. As a result, Tehran effectively squandered tens of billions of dollars in Iranian public funds.
Tehran effectively squandered tens of billions of dollars in Iranian public funds.
Detailed annual data from the commodity intelligence firm Kpler show that from 2012 until the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Iran delivered more than 300 million barrels of oil to Syria, valued at approximately $23 billion. Beyond crude oil, Iran also incurred substantial costs to bolster proxy forces in the country. In late 2024, two former members of parliament put Syria’s debt to Iran at $30 billion, while some reports estimated the figure to be as high as $50 billion.
Kpler’s data also indicate that since 2020, Iran has delivered nearly 36 million barrels of gas condensate (ultra-light crude) to Venezuela to help dilute its extra-heavy oil to make it suitable for shipment. The value of this volume over the period in question is around $2.5 billion.
These figures relate only to crude oil. Iran also shipped vast quantities of gasoline and diesel to Syria and Venezuela and participated in numerous projects—from building six oil tankers for Venezuela and repairing its refineries to housing construction projects and other ventures.
Now, not only have all these investments been lost, but Syria’s new government is reportedly preparing a list to seek compensation from the Islamic Republic for its support of Assad and the devastation of the country; some reports suggest that the compensation sought could reach as high as $300 billion.
It is also unlikely that a future Venezuelan government—should it reach a rapprochement with the United States—would refrain from filing complaints against Iran over the involvement of Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in money laundering, drug trafficking, and financial corruption.
Over the past year, the Iranian rial has lost 70 percent of its value.
The Islamic Republic is currently facing widespread protests that it seeks to suppress by force. Over the past year, the Iranian rial has lost 70 percent of its value. Meanwhile, in the draft budget for the next fiscal year—beginning on March 22—the government has increased the share of oil revenues allocated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and religious institutions, while raising tax revenues by 63 percent. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and institutions under the supervision of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are exempt from taxation.
Crucially, the state budget—calculated at an exchange rate of 850,000 rials per dollar as specified in the budget—amounts to roughly $45 billion; calculated at the free-market exchange rate, it is closer to $30 billion. This is despite Central Bank data showing that over the past five years, Iran has earned an average of $50 billion per year from exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and gas. If the shares allocated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and religious institutions were removed, oil revenues alone would be sufficient to cover the entire state budget.
Central Bank statistics also show that between 2010 and the end of 2025, Iran exported roughly $850 billion worth of crude oil, petroleum products, and gas—an amount equal to the country’s total hydrocarbon exports over the entire preceding century, from the start of oil production in 1908 to 2009.
Despite this extraordinary level of export revenue, Iran’s gross domestic product fell sharply over the same period, declining from about $600 billion in 2010 to $356 billion in 2025. Iranians are therefore entitled to ask what became of the $850 billion in oil exports, and why the economy has nearly halved in size in spite of such massive revenues.
